The Bitcoin treasury market is going through a tough period. The total market capitalization of companies holding BTC on their balance sheets has plummeted by over $100 billion since October 2025. According to my on-chain data analysis, this figure has dropped from $396 billion to $272 billion, despite the total number of coins in their possession increasing.
The Accumulation Paradox: More Coins, Less Value
The key conclusion I draw is that corporate holders have fallen into the classic "buying at the top" trap. Between November 2024 and October 2025, when BTC traded in the range of $75,000 to $125,000, the number of bitcoins in their treasuries tripled—from 953,000 to 1.14 million coins. However, since May 2025, when the asset entered a zone of significant undervaluation, the pace of accumulation has sharply slowed and nearly ground to a halt.
This dynamic paints a worrying picture. Companies built up their positions near peak values, but now, with lower prices, buying activity has virtually disappeared. This is a classic sign that institutional investors acted pro-cyclically rather than counter-cyclically, sharply contrasting with rational capital management.
The Risk of Cascading Sales: The Strategy Example
The main question facing the market now is: what will these holders do next? Given that many of them "bought the top," there is a real risk that they will start "selling the bottom." A telling example is the company Strategy, which, according to my data, has already begun to realize some of its BTC. This heightens concerns about the entire corporate treasury segment.
The slowdown in purchases by large corporate holders removes a significant portion of the usual demand from the market. If other treasuries follow Strategy's lead and start selling, the pressure on the price could increase significantly. For now, they hold a record volume of coins, but new purchases have nearly stopped.
My analysis shows that the market is entering a phase where the lack of demand from institutions could become a trigger for further correction. Investors should closely monitor the actions of the largest holders—their behavior will determine the near-term dynamics of BTC.