The market capitalization of public companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheets has decreased by more than $100 billion since October 2025. The total value of these assets fell from $396 billion to $272 billion, despite the total number of coins in their possession increasing over the same period.
Analysis of on-chain metrics reveals a concerning picture: the number of bitcoins held by corporate treasuries increased from 953,000 to 1.14 million BTC. However, the decline in the price of the leading cryptocurrency completely offset this growth, turning it into fiat losses. Essentially, companies were building positions at peak levels, and now that the market has corrected, they find themselves in a deep drawdown.
Slowing accumulation: a key signal
The critical moment was a sharp slowdown in the pace of purchases. Starting in May, when bitcoin showed significant undervaluation according to several fundamental metrics, the accumulation process by corporate entities virtually stopped.
The bulk of the coins were bought between November 2024 and October 2025, when the BTC price fluctuated in the range of $75,000 to $125,000. It was during this period that the number of held coins tripled. However, now, at lower prices, we observe not an increase, but a lull. This is a classic "buying at the top" pattern and a complete lack of interest during the downturn, indicating extremely irrational management of treasury reserves.
Market risks: selling at the bottom?
The main question now is the future behavior of these holders. Given that many of them bought "at the top," there is a real risk that with further price declines, they will start to lock in losses, i.e., sell "at the bottom." The first sign of this has already come from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which, according to my data, has begun to realize part of its portfolio.
This combination of factors—a halt in purchases by the largest corporate players and the potential start of sales—removes a significant layer of habitual demand from the market. If other treasuries follow Strategy's lead, the pressure on the BTC price could significantly intensify. For now, they hold a record volume of coins, but the absence of new purchases is a bearish signal that cannot be ignored.
My expert opinion: Corporate treasuries have demonstrated the classic mistake of retail investors—chasing a rising market. Their current passivity during the downturn only confirms that the institutional demand we used to consider "smart money" has, in reality, turned out not to be so smart. This increases the market's vulnerability to further correction.