Donald Trump once again tried to portray himself as the savior of the economy by posting on Truth Social, claiming credit for lower gasoline prices. However, looking at real market data, the picture is quite the opposite.
The politician claimed an approval rating of 59% and linked it to the drop in oil and gas prices. "Prices are falling along with the drop in oil and gas costs. Thank you!" he wrote. But independent polls paint a very different picture: according to data from The Economist and FiftyPlusOne, Trump's actual approval rating ranges between 37-40%. The 59% figure he uses actually reflects the level of dissatisfaction with his policies—almost a mirror image of his claims.
Oil is rising, not falling
While Trump celebrated a victory, the oil market showed the opposite trend. Brent prices rose nearly 4%, reaching $78.67 per barrel by Sunday evening, and after new US strikes on Iran, quotes exceeded the $79 mark. This is a direct consequence of the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
The US launched a fourth strike on Iran in a week, to which Tehran responded with attacks on military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. Moreover, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic corridor through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass. Although US Central Command denied this statement, the mere threat has already boosted prices.
Notably, Trump posted his message just hours after these strikes, when oil had already started rising. The price drop he mentions was temporary and linked to the fragile ceasefire from June 17, which was terminated on July 8. Now, the battle for the Strait of Hormuz continues, and oil prices are rising again.
Gasoline is not getting cheaper
As for gasoline, Trump's claims are also unsubstantiated. According to AAA, the national average price is about $3.87 per gallon—roughly 30% higher than pre-conflict levels in February. Yes, compared to the Memorial Day peak ($4.56), the price has decreased, but experts attribute this solely to a temporary easing, not a sustainable trend.
Expert opinion: The oil market is now tied to geopolitics, not political statements. As long as the escalation between the US and Iran continues, any talk of price drops is nothing more than wishful thinking. Investors should prepare for volatility: if the conflict drags on, Brent could easily break through the $80 mark and go higher.