The market capitalization of public companies holding bitcoin in their treasuries has shrunk by more than $100 billion since October 2025. This is an alarming signal for the market: the total value of their assets fell from $396 billion to $272 billion, despite the fact that the total number of BTC on their balance sheets grew over the same period — from 953,000 to 1.14 million coins. We are witnessing the classic "buying at the top" effect on the scale of an entire segment.
Accumulation Dynamics: From Tripling to Freeze
The key point I want to highlight is the sharp slowdown in the pace of purchases. The bulk of the coins were accumulated by corporate treasuries between November 2024 and October 2025, when the price of bitcoin fluctuated in the range of $75,000 to $125,000. It was then that the number of BTC in their accounts tripled. However, starting in May 2025, when the asset, in my estimation, entered a zone of significant undervaluation, the accumulation process practically stopped.
Market Risks: From Buying the Top to Selling the Bottom
This pattern of behavior creates an extremely vulnerable situation. These institutional players increased their positions near all-time highs, and now that prices have fallen, they have not only stopped buying but, according to my data, some have already begun to realize losses. In particular, the company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has already started selling off part of its bitcoins. If this trend spreads to other treasuries, we could see a wave of forced or panic selling, which would put additional pressure on the market.
Currently, these holders are sitting on a record volume of coins, but the absence of new demand from them removes a powerful supporting factor. The main question is not how many BTC they hold, but how long they will be willing to hold them at current prices. If the psychological barrier is breached, stopping a chain reaction of sales will be extremely difficult.
My professional opinion: The market has lost one of its key growth drivers — aggressive corporate demand. Until treasuries resume buying at lower levels, or until a new powerful catalyst emerges, the potential for recovery will be limited. Investors should closely monitor the actions of the largest BTC holders, as their behavior is currently setting the tone for the entire market.