Donald Trump is once again trying to present himself as the savior of the American wallet. In a post on Truth Social, the politician claimed that gasoline prices are falling and oil costs are dropping, attributing these achievements to himself. However, market data and independent polls paint a completely different picture.
Trump claims his approval rating is 59% and that oil and gas prices are falling thanks to his policies. But the reality is that the price of benchmark Brent crude oil rose by nearly 4% in the last 24 hours, reaching $78.67 per barrel. After new U.S. strikes on Iran, quotes even exceeded $79. This is a direct consequence of the escalating conflict in the region, not the result of any "successful" actions by the administration.
The situation is exacerbated by Tehran's announcement of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic transport corridor through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass. Although the Pentagon denied this information, stating that the passage remains open, the mere fact of such statements creates immense pressure on the market. Shipping in the region only began to recover after a fragile ceasefire on June 17, but on July 8, the agreement was terminated, and oil prices rose again.
The Numbers Don't Match the Claims
Independent polls by The Economist and FiftyPlusOne show that Trump's actual approval rating ranges from 37% to 40%. What he calls "approval" is actually the level of dissatisfaction with his course—59% of respondents oppose his actions. In effect, the politician has turned these numbers upside down.
The situation with gasoline prices is similar. According to AAA, the average cost of a gallon of fuel in the U.S. is about $3.87. This is roughly 30% higher than levels before the conflict began in February. There has indeed been a decline compared to the peak on Memorial Day ($4.56), but this is a temporary phenomenon linked to periods of de-escalation, not a sustained trend. Now, strikes have resumed, and the battle for the Strait of Hormuz continues.
Expert opinion: The oil market is currently in an extremely vulnerable position. Any escalation in the Persian Gulf region will instantly be reflected in quotes, and no political statements can change the fundamental laws of supply and demand. Investors should prepare for increased volatility, especially given that risks to global supplies remain extremely high.