The first crypto asset has come very close to the critical lower boundary of the long-term Power Law model — a tool I use in my analysis to assess structural market levels. According to my calculations, under the current conditions, the support line is near the $58,000 mark, while the upper limit of the model is around $120,000. This zone has historically acted as a powerful magnet for institutional capital.
The observed dynamics confirm that the market is entering a phase I call "strategic accumulation." However, it is important to emphasize: approaching the support line does not in itself guarantee a trend reversal. Without an external catalyst, particularly the return of liquidity to the global financial system, bitcoin could remain stuck in a sideways range near this boundary for several months.
Significantly, the Power Law model, which I have been tracking since 2015, has never been broken downward on weekly timeframes — this adds extra weight to the current test. Nevertheless, I recommend fellow investors not to rush to conclusions: the $58,000–$62,000 zone could become an arena for a prolonged struggle between buyers and sellers.
My Analysis
From a macroeconomic cycle perspective, the current situation resembles the consolidation of 2019–2020 before the sharp rally. However, this time, the key factor will be the behavior of Fed liquidity — without its expansion, even such strong support may not hold the price. I expect that the next 4–6 weeks will determine the scenario for the second half of the year.