Former US President Donald Trump once again attempted to portray himself as the savior of the American economy, posting a statement on his social media platform Truth Social with bold claims. He asserts that gasoline prices are falling thanks to his actions, and that the approval rating for his policies reaches 59%. However, real market data and independent polls paint a completely different picture.
Oil is getting more expensive, not cheaper
Contrary to Trump's claims, the price of the benchmark Brent crude rose nearly 4%, reaching $78.67 per barrel by Sunday evening. After new US strikes on Iran, quotes even exceeded the $79 mark. Recall that the US has already carried out a fourth strike on Iran this week. In response, Tehran attacked US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, and also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key route through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies pass. However, the US Central Command denied this information, assuring that the strait remains open for navigation.
Trump himself published his post a few hours after these strikes, which obviously pushed prices up. Shipping in the region only began to recover after a fragile ceasefire on June 17, but the agreement was terminated on July 8, and oil prices rose again.
The numbers contradict his claims
Independent polls, such as data from The Economist and FiftyPlusOne, show that Trump's approval rating is at 37–40%. The share of those who disapprove of him is approaching 59% — almost a mirror image of the figure he cited in his post. This is not an approval rating, but a disapproval rating.
As for gasoline prices, the national average, according to AAA, is about $3.87 per gallon. This is roughly 30% higher than pre-war levels in February. Yes, compared to the peak on Memorial Day ($4.56), the price has decreased, but experts attribute this decline to a temporary de-escalation of the conflict, not a long-term trend. Now strikes have resumed, and the struggle for the Strait of Hormuz continues.
My professional opinion: Politicians trying to take credit for market movements is common, but in this case, we see a classic example of wishful thinking. The oil market reacts to geopolitical risks, not social media posts. If the escalation continues, the price decline Trump speaks of will prove to be only a short-term episode, and volatility in energy markets will only increase, directly impacting gasoline prices and inflation.