The market is experiencing a paradoxical moment: companies that have made bitcoin part of their treasury reserves have increased their coin holdings, but their aggregate market capitalization has collapsed by more than $100 billion. Since October 2025, the value of these assets has fallen from $396 billion to $272 billion. This is despite the fact that the volume of bitcoin held has actually increased — from 953,000 to 1.14 million coins.
Simple arithmetic: there are more coins, but their dollar valuation has sharply declined following the market. Corporate treasuries have essentially become hostages of their own accumulation strategy.
The peak of buying is behind us
The key point I want to highlight: the pace of accumulation has sharply slowed. Analysis of on-chain data shows that the bulk of coins were purchased between November 2024 and October 2025, when bitcoin was trading in the range of $75,000 to $125,000. During this period, the number of BTC held by corporations tripled.
However, since May 2025, when, in my estimation, bitcoin reached a zone of significant undervaluation relative to its fundamental metrics, purchases have practically ceased. The chart of corporate treasury holdings (blue area) and their aggregate market capitalization (red line) clearly demonstrates this divergence.
The picture is alarming. Companies actively built up positions near the highs, and now, at lower prices, buying activity has dried up. This creates a classic "bought the top" scenario.
Risk to the market: from hold to sales
The main question now is the future behavior of these holders. If large corporations, which largely "bought the top," begin to lock in losses or simply reduce positions, we could see a wave of selling "at the bottom." The first warning bell has already rung: Strategy, one of the flagships of this movement, has started selling bitcoins. This heightens concerns across the entire segment.
The slowdown in purchases by institutional treasuries removes a significant portion of the usual demand. If others follow Strategy, the pressure on price could become critical. For now, they are holding a record volume of coins, but new purchases have almost stopped.
My analysis: The current situation is a classic example of a "liquidity trap." Corporate holders, having bought heavily at the peak, can now neither sell without losses nor buy at the lows due to a lack of capital or concerns. This creates a fragile equilibrium that could be disrupted by any significant market move.