Former U.S. President Donald Trump is once again trying to claim victory on the economic front, this time in the energy market. In his Truth Social post, he claimed a drop in gasoline and oil prices, citing a 59% approval rating for his actions. However, real market data and independent polls paint a completely different picture.
Oil Prices Rise Despite Trump's Claims
Brent crude quotes rose nearly 4%, reaching $78.67 per barrel by Sunday evening. After new U.S. strikes on Iran, the price exceeded $79. The escalation of the conflict, including the fourth missile strike in a week, led to Tehran's retaliatory actions against U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. Iran also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass. The Pentagon denied this claim, but the mere threat has already triggered a rise in quotes.
Trump published his post a few hours after the strikes, which pushed oil prices up. He wrote: "59% approval rating. Prices are coming down along with the drop in oil and gas costs. Thank you!" — but these words contradict market dynamics.
Numbers Contradict His Claims
Independent polls by The Economist and FiftyPlusOne show that Trump's actual approval rating ranges from 37% to 40%. The share of those who disapprove of him approaches 59% — almost a mirror image of the figure he cited. Thus, the politician likely confused his approval rating with his disapproval rating.
As for gasoline prices, the national average, according to AAA, is about $3.87 per gallon. This is roughly 30% higher than pre-conflict levels in February. The decline from the Memorial Day peak ($4.56) is attributed by experts to a temporary détente in relations between Washington and Tehran after a shaky truce was reached on June 17. However, after the agreement was broken on July 8, oil began to rise again.
My analysis: The market reacts to real geopolitical risks, not political statements. As long as the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz region continues, the decline in oil and gasoline prices that Trump speaks of appears temporary and unstable. Investors should brace for volatility, not long-term declines.