In a recent post on Truth Social, Donald Trump claimed that gasoline prices are falling and his approval rating is high, attributing these successes to himself. However, an analysis of real market data and independent polls paints a completely different picture. The politician appears to be trying to wishful thinking, ignoring the fundamental factors currently driving commodity markets.
Trump wrote: "59% approval rating. Prices are coming down with the drop in oil and gas costs. Thank you!" But looking at the dynamics of oil quotes, we see the opposite process. Brent prices rose by almost 4%, reaching $78.67 per barrel by Sunday evening. After new US strikes on Iran, quotes even exceeded $79.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is the true driver of growth. The US launched a fourth strike on Iran in a week, to which Tehran responded with attacks on military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. Moreover, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass. Although US Central Command denied this statement, the mere threat has already heated up the market.
Notably, Trump published his post just hours after these strikes, which pushed oil prices up. His claim of falling prices looks at least premature. Shipping in the region had only just begun to recover after a fragile ceasefire on June 17, but on July 8 the agreement was terminated, and oil prices rose again.
Independent polls also diverge from the figures Trump cites. According to The Economist and FiftyPlusOne, his actual approval rating is at 37-40%. Meanwhile, the share of those who disapprove approaches 59%—almost a mirror image of the number he mentions. The national average gasoline price is currently around $3.87 per gallon—roughly 30% higher than pre-conflict levels in February. Experts attribute the decline from the Memorial Day peak ($4.56) to a temporary easing, not a sustained trend.
My comment: The oil market is currently squeezed between geopolitical risk and politicians' attempts to manipulate perception. Trump is trying to pass off a temporary correction as his own achievement, but fundamental factors—war and the threat to the Strait of Hormuz—point to continued growth. If the escalation drags on, we will see not a decline but new price peaks. Investors should prepare for volatility.