The digital asset market is showing signs of a structural shift. The Altcoin Season Index from CoinGlass, a key indicator of capital rotation, has risen to 58. Earlier, on June 4, the indicator made a sharp jump to 64, after which it consolidated at elevated levels. This signals a gradual flow of liquidity from Bitcoin into a broader range of alternative cryptocurrencies.
The CoinGlass metric evaluates the share of top assets by market capitalization that have outperformed BTC over the last 90 days. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 points, where a reading above 75 is traditionally considered the official start of altcoin season. The current value of 58 points is noticeably above the neutral zone, but is still insufficient to challenge the dominance of the first cryptocurrency, which stands at about 57% according to CoinGecko.
The index is rising, but consensus is far away
At the time of writing this review, the CoinGlass index has settled at 58. This is significantly above the neutral mark, but still far from the 75-point threshold. It is worth noting that calculating altcoin season is not an exact science. For example, the CoinMarketCap index paints a more restrained picture, sitting at 53. The difference between services is a common occurrence, as each uses its own parameters and criteria for selecting assets.
The dynamics of Bitcoin itself strengthen the arguments in favor of rotation. In recent weeks, the BTC dominance level has been testing important support levels. Some traders believe that a breakout of these levels could kickstart a full-fledged altcoin season.
BTC dominance is declining: capital flows into alts
The rise in the index coincided with a change in market structure. According to CryptoRank, Bitcoin's share fell from 58.12% to approximately 54% in early July, although it has now slightly recovered to 56.3%. Over the same period, the share of altcoins excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins grew from 19.39% to 24.68%. This is a clear illustration of capital flow.
However, not all recent signals point to a strengthening of altcoins. At the end of June, the Glassnode team noted the return of a signal for the onset of altcoin season, but warned that the main driver of the dynamics was not the real superiority of alts, but a sharp drop in Bitcoin. The market has seen selective, rather than mass, rotation. Capital is mainly flowing into yield-bearing tokens and the Solana ecosystem, despite the fact that altcoin sales are intensifying among small-cap projects.
Institutional investors are setting a more positive scenario. In mid-June, ETF flows turned towards altcoins: fresh capital went into products based on Ether, Solana, and XRP, while Bitcoin funds recorded outflows. This is typically how the accumulation phase for altcoins begins, although it does not provide direct confirmation of a trend.
My opinion: The rise of CoinGlass to 58 and the weakening of Bitcoin's dynamics relative to the overall market share effectively support the rotation theory. However, to confirm a full-fledged altcoin season, a sustained decline in BTC dominance below 55% and the index reaching the 75 mark are necessary. Further movement will largely depend on whether BTC dominance continues to decline through the end of July. For now, this is more of an accumulation phase rather than a breakout phase.