A well-known gold advocate and long-time critic of fiat systems, Peter Schiff, is sounding the alarm once again. This time, his forecast concerns not so much Bitcoin as the fundamental crisis he believes is brewing in the U.S. government bond market.
Schiff argues that the real threat to the global economy comes not from cryptocurrency volatility, but from the rapid rise in yields on U.S. government bonds. The yield on 10-year notes is already approaching 4.5%, while 30-year bonds have jumped to nearly 5%. This, he says, is just the beginning.
The rise in yields makes borrowing more expensive for all market participants—from corporations to households. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage in the U.S. has already reached 6.49%, pushing a huge number of potential homebuyers out of the market. Schiff predicts that a bond market crash will trigger a chain reaction: stocks, real estate, and digital assets will all decline simultaneously, and investors will flock en masse to gold.
In his scenario, a deep downturn in the real estate market will force the Federal Reserve to intervene and launch new cycles of money printing. This, in turn, will reignite the inflationary spiral. In both possible scenarios—either through a direct market crash or a new wave of inflation—gold appears to be the clear beneficiary. The precious metal is already trading above $4,100 per ounce and has quickly recovered from its June drop below $4,000.
Bitcoin Will Not Hold Up
Schiff does not spare the leading cryptocurrency either. Despite BTC holding up better than many skeptics expected, trading around $62,000 with a market cap of about $1.29 trillion, its price is still 49% below the all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. This, according to the analyst, clearly demonstrates that Bitcoin does not behave as a safe-haven asset.
"When tech stocks start to decline, Bitcoin will follow," Schiff stated. "It has no correlation when stocks are rising, but when the tech sector falls, Bitcoin will crash even harder." He also points to the weakness of Strategy (MicroStrategy) shares—the largest corporate holder of BTC with a portfolio of over 840,000 coins. The company has already begun selling Bitcoin to pay dividends, which, in Schiff's view, calls the sustainability of its entire model into question. In a worst-case scenario, he suggests BTC could fall to $20,000.
Schiff concludes: "The precious metals market is preparing for a powerful surge upward, while the stock market is heading for a serious decline."
Expert opinion: Schiff's forecasts are traditionally polarizing, but ignoring signals from the bond market right now would be imprudent. Rising yields are a real factor putting pressure on all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, it is worth remembering that Bitcoin is still in the process of institutional adoption, and its correlation with traditional markets could change as infrastructure develops. Nevertheless, in the short term, Schiff's scenario looks quite realistic.