The market is on the verge of a large-scale correction, and its trigger will not be Bitcoin's declines at all. The main blow, according to my analysis, will come from the US government bond market. That is where a zone of maximum turbulence is currently forming, which will affect all asset classes—from stocks to real estate and cryptocurrencies.
Why Bonds Are the Epicenter of the Crisis
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has already risen to ~4.5%, and 30-year bonds are approaching the 5% mark. This is not just statistics—it is a signal that the cost of borrowing for the entire economy is rising rapidly. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage in the US has already reached 6.49%, making housing unaffordable for a significant portion of the population. The real estate market is beginning to decline, and this is only the first stage.
The rise in bond yields automatically makes financing more expensive for businesses and households. Stocks, commodities, and digital assets will come under pressure as investors begin to reassess risks. All of this is happening against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve potentially being forced to intervene—launching new cycles of issuance, which would reignite the inflationary spiral.
In such an environment, gold looks like the most resilient asset. It is already trading above $4,100 per ounce and quickly recovered after a June drop below $4,000. While the stock market is in turmoil, precious metals continue to attract capital as a classic safe-haven instrument.
Bitcoin Won't Save You—It Will Only Worsen Losses
Many believe that Bitcoin will become "digital gold" and withstand the crisis. But the data suggests otherwise. BTC is currently trading around $62,000, roughly 49% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. This is a clear example that the leading cryptocurrency behaves like a high-risk asset, not a store of value.
When tech stocks start to fall, Bitcoin will likely follow them with even greater amplitude. It does not show correlation with the market during the growth phase, but during the downturn, its decline proves deeper. This is also confirmed by the dynamics of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) shares—the largest corporate holder of BTC with a portfolio of over 840,000 coins. The company has already begun selling Bitcoin to pay dividends, which only adds pressure on the price.
In the event of a full-scale collapse in the bond market, the price of BTC could fall to $20,000. The precious metals market, on the other hand, is preparing for a powerful upward surge, while the stock market faces a serious decline. Investors should reconsider their defensive strategies before it is too late.
Analyst's opinion: Ignoring signals from the bond market is one of the most dangerous mistakes. While everyone is watching Bitcoin, the real storm is brewing at the heart of the global financial system. Gold remains the only reliable anchor in this storm.