The large-scale economic effect of introducing the digital ruble could amount to approximately 423 billion rubles annually. However, this impressive figure is not a guaranteed bonus, but rather an upper limit, achievable only under the condition of total penetration of the new form of currency and the creation of a whole range of financial products based on it.
This estimate, presented during the Financial Congress of the Bank of Russia, was put forward by Ilya Ivaninsky, Director of the Center for Business Education and Analytics at a leading university. The analysis shows that the main share of the benefit — 348 billion rubles — will go to the real sector of the economy. Savings here will come from reduced transfer fees, faster settlements, automation of complex transactions, and simplification of cross-border operations.
Distribution of the effect: who wins and how much
A detailed breakdown shows that the greatest potential lies in the segment of international settlements. Eliminating intermediaries and automating foreign trade contracts could free up to 130 billion rubles per year. Reducing the cost of domestic payments and transfers will add another 128 billion. Effective liquidity management through instant settlements will bring 100 billion, and automation of smart contracts, where payment occurs automatically after obligations are fulfilled, will contribute about 65 billion rubles.
The banking sector will also not be left out, receiving an additional earnings incentive of approximately 75 billion rubles per year. Their profit will be generated through the introduction of new products: commercial smart contracts, services for cross-border settlements, and innovative customer service scenarios.
Why the effect will be delayed
Despite the optimism, it is important to understand: 423 billion rubles is only 0.2% of Russia's current GDP. The figure is realistic, but achieving it is a matter of time and effort. A tangible effect will only appear when the digital ruble accounts for at least a quarter of all transactions in the country.
Mass adoption will start on September 1, 2026, when all systemically important banks will connect to the platform. However, the process remains voluntary. And here, the key challenge is trust. Currently, only 18% of Russians express full trust in the new currency, and about one in five are ready to use it for payments in stores. With this level of acceptance, businesses and citizens will need time to assess the benefits, and authorities will have to make significant efforts to popularize the instrument.
Expert opinion: 423 billion is not just a number, but an ambitious benchmark. The key driver here will be the international track: under conditions of sanctions pressure, the digital ruble could become an effective tool for bypassing restrictions and accelerating foreign trade settlements. However, without active outreach and the creation of convenient user scenarios for citizens and businesses, the domestic effect could turn out to be significantly more modest than forecasts.