The real estate market in San Francisco is experiencing a unique and, in my opinion, alarming phenomenon. Home sellers have begun to widely accept shares of private companies specializing in artificial intelligence—OpenAI and Anthropic—as payment. These are securities with no market price, as these AI giants have not yet gone public. This is perhaps the clearest sign that the bubble in the artificial intelligence sector has spiraled out of control.
How homes are being exchanged for shares of private companies
One of the first to draw attention to this trend was investor Nima Gabbay. He listed his home for sale at $2.995 million, stating he was willing to accept shares of OpenAI or Anthropic as payment. Notably, one OpenAI employee offered him an amount exceeding the asking price by more than $1 million. In essence, the buyer inflated the potential value of their own shares to make the offer "larger."
Another example is tech entrepreneur Vijay Chattoi. He offered a $500,000 discount on his $2.5 million home if the buyer paid with Anthropic shares. However, the deal has yet to close. Storm Duncan, head of a tech investment bank, went even further: he created a separate LinkedIn page for his $8 million property and directly messaged Anthropic employees with exchange proposals.
Analysts link this frenzy to upcoming IPOs. It is expected that the public listings of OpenAI and Anthropic will make millionaires of over 16,000 people in the Bay Area. Future millionaires are rushing to buy homes before this money enters the market and drives prices even higher.
Why the housing market has surged
Sellers are well aware of the impending wealth of AI company employees and refuse to sell homes cheaply. This has triggered a vertical rise in the market. The data speaks for itself: this year, 144 homes were sold for at least $1 million above the asking price, compared to just 8 such transactions in the first half of 2025.
The number of deals over $10 million has doubled in the last six months. In one case, a home listed for $7.9 million sold for $15 million. A shortage of supply only amplifies the dynamic: fewer than 600 homes remain on the market—roughly 40% below the ten-year average.
My analysis: The situation in the San Francisco real estate market is a classic sign of overheating, often preceding a correction. People are paying for real estate with overvalued shares of private companies, reminiscent of the 2007 crisis, but in reverse. Back then, people took out loans based on inflated home valuations; now, they are paying with inflated shares. When the AI bubble bursts or the market realizes the true value of these securities, the consequences for the real estate market could be catastrophic. This is not an investment; it is speculation on a future that may not materialize as expected.