While markets are closely watching the escalation in the Middle East, pushing Bitcoin toward the $62,000 mark, I draw your attention to a much more significant trigger — the Japanese debt market. It is there, not in geopolitical headlines, that the key to understanding the current correction of the first cryptocurrency lies.
The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) on July 9 soared to 2.9% for the first time in 30 years, but the very next day it collapsed by 16 basis points to 2.71%. This is the largest daily drop since April 2025. A similar picture was observed for 30-year bonds: a decline of 13 basis points to 3.87% was the largest since January 21. Such volatility is a historic event for Japan's conservative debt market.
The reason for the reversal is a statement by Japan's Minister of Finance about plans to encourage pension funds, including the largest GPIF with $1.8 trillion in assets, to increase their share of domestic assets. If this happens, capital will begin to flow back from foreign securities into Japanese bonds, reducing pressure on the yen and stabilizing the domestic debt market. However, in the short term, it caused a shock.
Parallels with April 2025
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe rightly notes: "The correction has little to do with events in the Middle East. Much more so with the rise in Japanese yields." He draws a parallel with April 2025, when, after the introduction of global tariffs by Donald Trump, the yield on 30-year JGBs jumped by 100 basis points, triggering a cascading decline across all markets. Now the scenario is repeating: volatility in the Japanese debt market has become a trigger for Bitcoin. Van de Poppe forecasts a reversal in yields downward within one to two weeks, which will automatically lead to a rise in BTC.
At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $62,700. However, aside from external factors, the market is showing internal weakness. Analyst Darkfost points out that Bitcoin has been trading below the acquisition price of short-term holders (STH) for more than nine months — a historical sign of a bearish phase. The STH cost basis is $70,700 and acts as strong resistance. The main problem is weak spot demand: the 30-day moving average metric has remained negative since December 2025, reaching a low of -273,000 BTC in mid-June and recovering only to -100,000 BTC.
At the same time, CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto records partial normalization: the composite index v.2.0 is at 0.484 — below the elevated risk zone but above the bottom values of past cycles (0 — 2015, 0.05 — 2018, 0.13 — 2022). This indicates a partial flush but not a deep macro correction.
My opinion: The market has found itself trapped between external macroeconomic shocks and internal on-chain weakness. The Japanese debt market is a "silent killer" that could trigger either a sharp rebound or further decline. The key level for bulls is $76,600: only a consolidation above it will confirm a trend change. For now, until spot demand recovers, any rally will be speculative in nature.