The real estate market in San Francisco is experiencing a unique and frankly alarming phenomenon. Home sellers are increasingly turning away from traditional dollars and demanding shares of private AI giants — OpenAI and Anthropic — as payment. This, in my view, is one of the clearest signals that the "AI bubble" has spiraled out of control and is beginning to impact the real economy.
A key feature of this situation is that neither OpenAI nor Anthropic are public companies. Their shares are not traded on the stock exchange, and they simply have no market price. Nevertheless, sellers are readily accepting these "securities" as payment, valuing them based on internal, often inflated, agreements.
Specific Cases: From $2.9 Million to $8 Million
One of the most prominent examples is investor Nima Gabbay, who listed his home for $2.995 million and stated he was willing to accept shares of OpenAI or Anthropic as payment. Moreover, an OpenAI employee has already offered him $1 million above the asking price, valuing their own shares at an inflated rate. The buyer essentially "created" the price to make their offer more attractive in the absence of an objective market.
Another case: tech entrepreneur Vijay Chattoy offered a $500,000 discount on his $2.5 million home if the buyer paid with Anthropic shares. And Storm Duncan, head of a technology investment bank, created a dedicated LinkedIn page for his $8 million property, directly appealing to Anthropic employees with an exchange proposal.
Why This Is Happening: The Hunt for Future Millionaires
The reason for the frenzy is the anticipation of upcoming IPOs. Analysts predict that the public listing of OpenAI and Anthropic could make millionaires out of over 16,000 people in the Bay Area. Real estate sellers, aware of this, are trying to "capture" future fortunes before the money hits the market and drives prices sky-high.
The numbers confirm the overheating: this year, 144 homes were sold for at least $1 million above the asking price, compared to just 8 such transactions in the first half of 2025. The number of deals exceeding $10 million has doubled over the past six months. In one case, a home listed for $7.9 million sold for $15 million.
Fewer than 600 homes remain on the market — roughly 40% below the ten-year average. The supply shortage only amplifies the dynamics.
My expert opinion: This situation is eerily reminiscent of the 2007 mortgage crisis, but in reverse. Back then, people took out loans based on inflated home valuations. Now, they are paying for real estate with overvalued shares of private companies. When the "paper" wealth evaporates — which is inevitable during a correction in the AI market — holders of these assets will be left with debt and devalued securities. The San Francisco real estate market has become a mirror of the speculative bubble in artificial intelligence, and this is an extremely dangerous signal.