This week, markets found themselves at a crossroads between two powerful forces. On one side is the escalation of geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which has already pushed oil and safe-haven assets higher. On the other is the upcoming release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US. This macroeconomic report, rather than geopolitics itself, will be the main trigger for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Geopolitical Premium and Market Reaction
The reaction to news of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was immediate. WTI crude oil surged over 4%, reaching around $74.40 per barrel, while Brent trades near $79. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened to 101.2, and the yield on 10-year Treasury notes holds around 4.50%. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, remains near $4,070 per ounce, indicating sustained demand for safe havens despite high US bond yields.
Cryptocurrencies are showing relative resilience for now. Bitcoin holds above $63,000, with the nearest resistance zone located in the $64,700–64,900 range. A firm break above this level could open the path to $66,000. However, if support is lost, market attention will shift to the $61,300 mark. Ethereum maintains its position around $1,777.
Institutional investments remain an important supporting factor. Spot cryptocurrency ETFs in the US recorded a net capital inflow of over $100 million on July 10. This indicates sustained interest from major players even amid heightened tensions.
CPI as the Main Driver
Markets are currently influenced by two competing factors. The first is the rise in the geopolitical risk premium, which supports oil, defense sector stocks, and safe-haven assets. The second is the release of June US inflation data, which should show whether high energy prices are beginning to change expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy.
If inflation comes in higher than forecasts, it could lead to a further rise in Treasury yields and increase pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, weaker CPI data will reinforce the view that the rise in oil prices is primarily a supply-side shock. In that case, investor risk appetite in stock and cryptocurrency markets could persist, creating favorable conditions for Bitcoin to return to $66,000.
Analytical Conclusion: In my view, the key scenario for Bitcoin this week is not so much overcoming geopolitical shocks, but rather the correct interpretation of macroeconomic data. If CPI comes in below expectations, we will see a powerful upward impulse. Otherwise, the market may enter a phase of consolidation or correction. Investors should closely watch the $64,700 and $61,300 levels—they will serve as markers for the direction of movement.