On Monday, Brent crude oil prices surged dramatically, rising nearly 11% to reach $83.31 per barrel. This jump was the most significant since the escalation of the US-Iranian confrontation at the end of February. The key catalysts were new strikes between the US and Iran, as well as Washington's announced plans to establish direct control over the Strait of Hormuz.
US military forces carried out hundreds of strikes on Iranian targets, with several dozen more on Sunday. The main goal, according to US Central Command, is to weaken Tehran's ability to attack vessels in the strait. In response, Iran launched missiles and drones at US targets in the region and again declared the strait closed, warning vessels to strictly adhere to permitted routes.
The shipping situation is already critical. Over 12 hours on Sunday, only nine vessels managed to cross the strait — for comparison, before the start of military operations, the average daily number of transits was close to 130. In peacetime, about one-fifth of the world's oil trade passes through this corridor, and its blockade creates a direct supply shock.
Technical Analysis: RSI Breaks Resistance
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Brent has risen to the 55 mark and settled above the neutral level of 50. This indicates that momentum has shifted to buyers. The price recovery had previously been restrained by a downward resistance line formed after the March RSI peak at 90. Sellers halted growth three times — in May at 64 and 58, and in June at 46.
At the end of June, the indicator dropped to 27, entering near-oversold territory. However, in early July, the RSI finally broke through the downward trend line and moved above the neutral zone, confirming the breakout. The signal will only turn bearish if the RSI again falls below 50 and breaks the support line from below. Until this happens, the momentum confirms the recovery that began from the July low.
Brent Forecast: Key Level $90–$92
From February to May, Brent moved within a large symmetrical triangle, connecting a high near $118 and a low near $91. At the end of May, the price broke out of the triangle to the downside and by early July fell to support at $71–$73. This zone held: buyers formed a base there over two weeks, and Monday's session allowed the price to surge higher. Brent opened near $78 and reached a high of $83.54 during the day — a rise of 10.76% at the time of publication.
The next significant resistance lies in the $90–$92 area. In the spring, this zone acted as support for the triangle, and now it has become a key confirmation of the downside breakout. If sellers become active here again, it will confirm the bearish scenario, and the price could return to $71–$73. If Brent closes the day above $92, it will cancel the downside breakout and restore the bullish sentiment from the start of the year.
Analytical Conclusion: The geopolitical premium on oil prices is likely to persist as long as Iran maintains tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The $90–$92 range will be decisive for the current recovery: whether Monday's surge becomes a reversal or another lower high.