On Monday, Brent crude oil prices demonstrated a powerful surge, jumping nearly 11% and reaching $83.31 per barrel. This momentum was one of the most significant since the escalation of the US-Iranian confrontation at the end of February. The key catalyst was news of Washington's plans to take direct control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The escalation of military actions between the US and Iran sparked panic in commodity markets. American forces launched massive strikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran responded with missile attacks and the use of drones. In response, Iranian authorities again declared the strait closed, warning vessels against deviating from permitted routes.
The result was immediate: shipping data recorded a collapse in traffic. Over 12 hours on Sunday, only nine tankers managed to cross the strait, compared to the usual daily figure of around 130. Effectively, a fifth of global oil trade was threatened with paralysis.
Technical Analysis: RSI Signals Bullish
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Brent broke through a descending resistance line that had halted its rise three times — in May at levels 64 and 58, and in June at 46. The indicator has now settled above the neutral zone of 50, clearly indicating a shift in momentum to buyers. The breakout of this line opens the path for further strengthening.
From a technical perspective, Brent formed a bottom in the support zone of $71–$73, where buyers held positions for two weeks. Monday's gap up from an opening near $78 and subsequent rise to $83.54 (+10.76%) confirms the strength of this reversal.
Forecast: Key Level $90–$92
The next major hurdle for bulls is the $90–$92 range. This zone previously served as support for a symmetrical triangle, from which the price broke downward in May. If sellers become active here, it would confirm a bearish scenario, and a correction could return quotes to the base at $71–$73.
However, a daily close above $92 would nullify the bearish breakout and restore the bullish sentiment from the start of the year. The geopolitical premium is likely to persist as long as Iran continues to maintain tensions in the region.
My comment: The oil market is now a pure geopolitical asset. Fundamental factors, such as the balance of supply and demand, have taken a back seat. As long as control over the strait remains a bargaining chip, Brent will trade with high volatility, and any diplomatic progress could trigger a sharp pullback. Investors should closely monitor the actions of the Federal Reserve and the reaction of stock markets, which are already showing divergent dynamics.