Brent crude oil (UKOIL) prices surged sharply on Monday, rising nearly 11% to reach $83.31. This powerful rebound occurred from the support zone of $71–$73 and became one of the most impressive price movements since the escalation of the US-Iran confrontation in late February.
The main catalyst for the growth was a series of new strikes between the US and Iran, as well as Washington's announced plans to establish direct control over the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Tehran launched missile strikes on US facilities in the region and again declared the strait closed, warning vessels against deviating from permitted routes.
Shipping data already records a traffic collapse. Over 12 hours on Sunday, only nine vessels managed to cross the strait, whereas before the start of military operations, the average daily number of crossings approached 130. In peacetime, about a fifth of global oil trade passes through this corridor, so any disruptions are immediately reflected in the price.
Technical Breakout: RSI Confirms Trend Change
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Brent rose to the 55 mark and settled above the neutral level of 50. This indicator, which assesses the speed and magnitude of price changes, finally broke through the downward resistance line that had constrained recovery since March. Sellers stopped RSI growth three times — in May at levels 64 and 58, and in June at 46. Now the initiative has shifted to buyers.
Forecast: Key Range $90–$92
From February to May, Brent moved within a large symmetrical triangle connecting a high near $118 and a low around $91. At the end of May, the price broke out of the triangle downward and by early July fell to support at $71–$73. This zone held: buyers formed a base there over two weeks, and Monday's session allowed the price to rise higher.
The next major resistance lies in the $90–$92 area. In spring, this zone served as support for the triangle, and now it has become a key confirmation of the downward breakout. If sellers become active here again, it will confirm the bearish scenario, and the price could return to $71–$73. However, a daily close above $92 would cancel the downward breakout and restore the bullish sentiment from the start of the year.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: The geopolitical premium in the price is likely to persist as long as Iran maintains tension in the Strait of Hormuz. The $90–$92 range will be decisive for the current recovery: whether Monday's surge becomes a reversal or another lower high will be determined there. Stock markets, unlike commodities, are reacting to this crisis with declines, creating a classic divergence scenario between risk assets and commodity futures.