On Monday, the oil market experienced a powerful surge: Brent (UKOIL) quotes jumped nearly 11%, reaching $83.31 per barrel. This rally was the most significant since the active phase of the confrontation between the US and Iran began in late February. The price bounced off the key support zone of $71–$73, and this momentum is radically changing the short-term picture.
Geopolitical Factor: Blockade and Control
The catalyst for the growth was direct military action. US forces launched hundreds of strikes on Iranian targets, with several dozen more on Sunday. The official goal is to neutralize Tehran's ability to attack vessels in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran used missiles and drones against US targets in the region, again declared the strait closed, and warned vessels against deviating from permitted routes.
Washington, in turn, stated its intention to take direct control of the strait. In peacetime, about a fifth of global oil trade passes through this corridor. Shipping data already records a collapse: in the 12 hours of Sunday, only nine vessels managed to cross the strait, whereas before the start of military operations, the average daily number of transits approached 130.
The reaction of stock markets is mixed: Japan's Nikkei 225 lost nearly 2%, and South Korean stocks continue to fall amid a decline in the chipmaker sector. However, for commodity contracts, the reassessment of risks resulted in a sharp rally.
Technical Analysis: RSI Breaks Resistance
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Brent broke through a downward resistance line that had contained the recovery since March and settled above the neutral 50 mark, reaching 55. This is a strong signal: the initiative has shifted to buyers. Previously, sellers stopped the RSI's rise three times — in May at levels 64 and 58, and in June at 46. Breaking this line opens the path to further strengthening.
The bearish scenario will only be canceled if the RSI again falls below 50 and breaks the broken line from below. Until this happens, momentum clearly supports the recovery.
Forecast: Key Level $90–$92
From February to May, Brent consolidated within a large symmetrical triangle with a high near $118. At the end of May, the price broke out downward and by early July tested the support zone of $71–$73. Buyers held this level, forming a base over two weeks, and Monday's breakout pushed Brent to a high of $83.54. The increase was 10.76% at the time of publication.
The next major resistance lies in the $90–$92 range. In the spring, this zone acted as triangle support, and now it will become a key test for the current recovery. If sellers become active again there, the bearish scenario will be confirmed, and the price could return to $71–$73. If Brent closes the day above $92, it will nullify the downward breakout and restore the bullish sentiment from the start of the year.
Analytical Conclusion: The geopolitical premium in the price is likely to persist as long as Iran maintains tension in the Strait of Hormuz. The $90–$92 range will be decisive for this rally: it will either become a reversal point or another lower high. Investors should closely monitor the developing situation — fundamental risks here outweigh any technical signals.