The XRP market continues to experience significant selling pressure, and data from the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange clearly confirms this. My analysis of on-chain metrics, particularly the Binance XRP CVD Confirmation Score indicator, points to a persistent imbalance favoring bears in the spot market.
What does the CVD metric show?
The key indicator I track is the combination of price dynamics and cumulative volume delta (CVD). CVD measures the net difference between executed buy and sell orders, allowing an assessment of whether the current trend is backed by real liquidity flows.
Over the past few months, the XRP price has shown a substantial decline — from levels above $2 to around $1.07. Concurrently, the CVD indicator has dropped to approximately -6.93 million. This negative zone reflects a sustained predominance of aggressive selling over buying on Binance. It is sellers who set the tone for the current price dynamics.
Meanwhile, the 30-day Price-CVD Confirmation Score has stabilized at around 0.84. Although this value can be considered relatively positive in terms of correlation, it by no means indicates sufficient buyer strength to reverse the trend. The relationship between price and order flow persists, but the flows themselves still favor sellers, which only reinforces the downward trend.
What to expect next?
The persistence of CVD in the negative zone increases the likelihood of weak short-term momentum. The lack of noticeable improvement in the Confirmation Score only strengthens this picture. The market has yet to show signs of forming a sustainable bottom.
However, I do not rule out an alternative scenario. A sustained recovery in CVD, especially with the indicator moving into positive territory alongside a rise in the Confirmation Score, could be the first sign of returning demand for XRP and an influx of fresh liquidity. Such a shift could support a broader price recovery.
My expert opinion: Until we see a decisive turnaround in CVD dynamics, any local XRP bounces will likely be used for selling. The key signal for a change in sentiment is a sustained move of the volume delta into positive territory. Until then, the advantage remains with sellers, and the market will need a significant catalyst to change this balance.