Analysis of recent sociological data reveals a troubling trend: the overwhelming majority of U.S. citizens — 79% — are convinced that the military conflict with Iran will be protracted. Only 18% of respondents believe in the possibility of hostilities ending in the coming weeks. These sentiments almost mirror the official position of the administration, which notified Congress of the resumption of the active phase starting July 7. The obtained mandate allows the Pentagon to conduct operations for the next 60 days without additional legislative approval.
Public Opinion: War Without Support
Despite the expectation of a prolonged confrontation, the level of public support for the military campaign itself remains critically low. According to independent studies, only 37% of respondents approve of the airstrikes resumed on June 26 after Washington accused Tehran of attacking commercial vessels. Even more indicative are the data from polls by the Financial Times and Generation Lab: 58% of voters consider the military campaign unjustified, and among youth aged 18-34, this figure reaches 77%. They directly call the strikes on Iranian targets a serious mistake.
Strait of Hormuz: Oil, Bitcoin, and Political Risks
The escalation has directly impacted global markets. The announcement of an intention to block Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% levy on all passing cargo triggered an immediate reaction: oil rose by about 4%, and Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $62,600. Investors rightly fear that the key energy route could be blocked for an extended period, sparking a rise in fuel prices. Already, six out of ten respondents expect gasoline prices to increase within a year, and the current price of $3.87 per gallon significantly exceeds pre-war levels.
The political context deserves special attention. Against the backdrop of the November midterm congressional elections, the decline in the ruling party's ratings is becoming critical. Claims of 59% presidential approval diverge from data from other sources, which estimate this figure closer to 39%. Both houses of parliament are at risk of losing control, creating additional pressure on the administration and potentially significantly influencing the future course.
From a crypto analyst's perspective, the current situation is a classic example of how a geopolitical shock reshapes risk appetite. The flight from risk toward safe-haven assets amid uncertainty around Hormuz is not a temporary fluctuation but a potentially long-term trend. Until markets see clear signals of de-escalation, volatility will remain high, and pressure on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, will persist.