American society shows rare unity in a grim forecast: an overwhelming majority of citizens — 79% — expect the military conflict with Iran to drag on for many months, if not years. This is not just an emotional reaction to the news, but the result of a deep analysis of the current situation, which I, as an analyst, consider quite rational.

A survey covering more than 1,000 adult US residents revealed that only 18% of respondents believe in a quick end to hostilities. These sentiments align with the official notification that President Donald Trump sent to Congress on July 7. This step gives the US armed forces carte blanche to conduct operations over the next 60 days without prior parliamentary approval. From my perspective, this is direct confirmation that Washington is preparing for a long game.

People Against War: Ratings Fall, Prices Rise

The approval rating for the military campaign remains critically low. Only 37% of respondents support the airstrikes, which resumed on June 26 after accusations against Tehran for attacking commercial vessels. Data from other studies paints an even more alarming picture for the authorities:

  • Financial Times: 58% of voters consider the war unjustified.
  • Generation Lab: 77% of youth (ages 18-34) call the strikes on Iran a serious mistake.

This creates powerful political pressure on the ruling party. Ahead of the November midterm congressional elections, Republicans risk losing control of both chambers. Rising fuel prices — gasoline is already hovering around $3.87 per gallon, significantly above pre-war levels — only adds fuel to the fire of discontent.

Strait of Hormuz: A New Red Line for Markets

On July 13, Trump made a statement that instantly shook global markets: he promised to block Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% tariff on all passing cargo. Tehran, in turn, had already announced the closure of the channel earlier.

Markets reacted swiftly: oil rose by about 4%, and Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $62,600. Investors fear that the key route for 20% of global oil supplies will remain blocked for a long time.

My expert conclusion: The escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is not just another round of tension, but a structural shock to the global economy. For the crypto market, which is still searching for a foothold, this means increased correlation with traditional risk assets. As long as geopolitical uncertainty dominates, we will see heightened volatility, and Bitcoin will struggle to hold above the $65,000 level. Investors should prepare for a prolonged period of turbulence.