Analysis of the latest sociological data paints a troubling picture: an overwhelming majority of US citizens—79%—are convinced that the military conflict with Iran will drag on for a long time. This sentiment almost mirrors the official stance voiced by President Donald Trump, who notified Congress of the resumption of hostilities on July 7. This move gives the US armed forces carte blanche to conduct operations over the next 60 days without immediate parliamentary approval.
Public Opinion: Pessimism and Disapproval
A joint study involving 1,019 adult respondents reveals deep pessimism. Only 18% of those surveyed believe the hostilities will end in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, support for the military campaign itself remains extremely low. Just 37% of respondents approve of the airstrikes on Iran, which resumed on June 26 after Washington accused Tehran of attacking commercial vessels.
Previous polls only confirm this trend. A Financial Times study showed that 58% of voters consider the military campaign unjustified. Even more telling are the data from a Generation Lab poll among youth aged 18-34: 77% of young Americans called the strikes on Iranian targets a serious mistake.
Strait of Hormuz: A New Flashpoint and Market Reaction
The escalation reached a new level on July 13 when Trump promised to block Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% tariff on all passing cargo. Tehran, in turn, had previously announced the closure of the channel. This statement triggered an immediate reaction in financial markets: oil rose by about 4%, while Bitcoin (BTC) dipped to $62,600. Investors fear that the key maritime route will remain blocked for an extended period.
The poll also showed that six out of ten respondents expect gasoline prices to rise within a year. Currently, the average price at gas stations hovers around $3.87 per gallon, noticeably higher than before the start of military operations.
The political cost of the conflict is also rising. Ahead of the November midterm elections, the administration's approval ratings are falling, increasing pressure on the ruling party. Both chambers of parliament—the House of Representatives and the Senate—are at risk of being lost.
My comment as an analyst: The situation around the Strait of Hormuz is a classic example of geopolitical risk that directly translates into volatility in oil and cryptocurrency markets. As long as uncertainty persists, we will observe increased correlation between commodity assets and digital currencies. For the crypto market, this means that short-term corrections amid such news could become the new norm.