Fresh sociological data paints a troubling picture: the overwhelming majority of US citizens—79%—are convinced that the military conflict with Iran will drag on for a long time. Only 18% of respondents believe hostilities will end in the coming weeks. These sentiments fully align with the official notification that President Donald Trump sent to Congress, resuming military operations on July 7. This step grants the US armed forces the right to conduct operations for another 60 days without prior parliamentary approval.
Notably, public support for the military campaign itself remains extremely low. The airstrikes, which resumed on June 26 after Washington accused Tehran of attacking commercial vessels, are approved by only 37% of respondents. Even more telling figures come from studies by other think tanks: 58% of voters consider the military campaign unjustified, and among young people aged 18 to 34, this figure reaches 77%.
Strait of Hormuz: Oil and Bitcoin Under Threat
Geopolitical tension is instantly transmitted to financial markets. On July 13, Trump promised to block Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% tariff on all passing cargo. Tehran, in turn, had already announced the closure of the channel earlier. Markets reacted immediately: oil rose by about 4%, and Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $62,600. Investors fear that the key route will remain blocked for a long time, triggering further increases in energy prices and a flight from risky assets.
The poll also showed that six out of ten respondents expect gasoline prices to rise within a year. Currently, the price at gas stations hovers around $3.87 per gallon, noticeably higher than the level before the start of military operations. This puts additional pressure on the ratings of the ruling party, which risks losing control of both houses of parliament in the upcoming midterm elections in November.
Expert opinion: The escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf is a classic example of how geopolitical risk transforms into a macroeconomic factor. For the crypto market, this means increased correlation with traditional assets in the moment, but also a growing interest in decentralized instruments as a hedge against the instability of fiat systems. In the coming months, we will likely see heightened volatility, and the key for BTC will be holding the $60,000 level.