Nearly 23% of workers in ASEAN countries—about 80 million people—are employed in professions where the impact of generative AI is assessed as "more than minimal." However, despite this impressive figure, panic is premature: large-scale displacement of workers by the technology has not yet been observed.
The key point here is the term "exposure." It is not synonymous with automatic job loss. It refers to the extent to which individual tasks within a profession can be automated or significantly altered with the help of AI. Analysts relied on labor market survey data, regression models, and interpolation, which allows for a high degree of confidence in the conclusions.
Where the wave hits: 11.7 million at risk
The most vulnerable group (with the highest level of potential impact) comprises 3.3% of the region's workers—11.7 million people. This category includes financial analysts, web developers, brokers, data entry operators, accountants, payroll specialists, HR managers, and contact center operators. Notably, even in these professions, employment continues to grow. The reason is that AI adoption is still in its early and uneven stages: it is active in the technology sector but has barely touched office and administrative roles.
Singapore—leader in preparedness and vulnerability
Among countries with comparable data, Singapore presents a paradox: 42.2% of workers are exposed to AI impact—the highest rate in the region. However, it is also the best prepared: a developed digital infrastructure and a comprehensive government strategy give it an edge. In second place are the Philippines (28.1%), linked to its service- and IT-oriented economy. They are followed by Indonesia (21.7%), Vietnam (20.8%), and Thailand (20.6%).
Gender gap: women hit twice as often
Women are more than twice as likely as men to be employed in professions with a high level of AI impact. The reason is their predominance in administrative, clerical, and professional positions, which are most susceptible to automation. Interestingly, the difference between young (15–24 years) and older age groups turned out to be insignificant.
Economists emphasize: the future of the labor market depends not on the technology itself, but on policy decisions. Productivity growth requires investment in human capital and social protection. The ILO's recommendations for ASEAN countries include expanding retraining programs, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, and coordinating policies at the regional level.
My analysis: The ILO figures are not a verdict, but rather a risk map for investors and regulators. The labor market in ASEAN is undergoing a structural transformation, but the pace of this transformation will be determined not by the speed of AI adoption, but by the speed of adaptation of educational systems and social institutions. Technology companies that are now actively using AI as a justification for layoffs risk facing a shortage of skilled workers within 3–5 years if they do not start investing in employee retraining.