The 2026 FIFA World Cup has become a catalyst for a tectonic shift in the betting industry. Decentralized prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have not just caught up with, but crushed traditional US bookmakers in terms of trading volume. The total turnover on these platforms during the tournament reached an astronomical $50 billion.
June was a record month for Kalshi: trading volume exceeded $31 billion, a 70% increase from May. Critically, 85% of this turnover came from sports contracts. International giant Polymarket also updated its monthly high, recording $10.8 billion, while its regulated US version added another $3.5 billion to that figure.
The joint project of Robinhood and Susquehanna — Rothera — also posted a respectable result of $2 billion. For context: even before the tournament began, analysts at Eilers & Krejcik predicted that all legal US bookmakers would collectively take bets of $2.8-4.3 billion across all 104 matches. However, Kalshi's specialized World Cup markets alone generated $7.4 billion before the group stage even ended. This is direct evidence that traditional betting is losing in terms of liquidity and engagement.
The growth of prediction markets is accompanied by a massive influx of new audiences. According to Apptopia, by the end of June, Kalshi's daily active users had grown by 36% compared to mid-month. The key drivers were a strategic partnership with FIFA and active promotion through Fox Sports. Meanwhile, user activity on platforms like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars fell by 32-41% after an initial spike.
Kalshi and Polymarket now control 78.5% of all installations among the six largest betting and prediction apps. A year earlier, their share was only 6%. This is not just a trend — it is a structural market overhaul. Traditional operators, accustomed to an oligopoly, face a threat they are trying to block at the legislative level by lobbying for a ban on sports prediction markets in the US Senate.
Expert commentary: Prediction markets have finally proven their effectiveness as a tool for hedging risks and speculating on sports events. Their superiority in liquidity and user convenience makes traditional bookmakers an anachronism. If regulators do not intervene, we will witness the complete dominance of decentralized platforms in this segment within the next two years.