In the modern crypto industry, relying solely on the price of Bitcoin is a surefire way to miss the essence of what's happening. The market has become deeper, more complex, and requires a more nuanced toolkit. Institutional investors and spot ETFs have fundamentally changed the rules of the game, and now, to see the full picture, it is necessary to turn to on-chain data. It is this data that allows us to look behind the scenes of capital movement and understand the real sentiment of participants.
During a recent study, I identified four key indicators that together provide the most complete picture of the current phase of the market cycle, investor behavior, and the balance of supply and demand.
1. MVRV Ratio: Overheated or Undervalued?
The first and perhaps most well-known indicator is MVRV. It compares Bitcoin's current market capitalization with its realized capitalization (the total purchase price of all coins). High MVRV values traditionally signal an overheated market and proximity to local tops, while low values indicate a zone of accumulation and undervaluation. This is a basic but extremely effective filter for determining global entry and exit points.
2. NUPL: Market Emotions at a Glance
The second critically important indicator is NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). It reflects the total unrealized profit or loss of all holders. Current NUPL values suggest that the euphoria characteristic of the 2025 bull market has already cooled significantly. However, we are still far from the zone of capitulation and complete despair. The market has transitioned into a phase of "belief" — optimism has been replaced by measured expectation, which is a normal stage of consolidation.
3. Realized Price: Fundamental Support
The third tool is the Realized Price. This is the average acquisition price of all coins in circulation, based on their last movement on the network. Many analysts rightly consider it a long-term support level. When the market price drops to the realized price, it often signals a strong accumulation zone where "smart money" begins to actively build positions.
4. Puell Multiple: Miner Pressure
Rounding out the quartet is the Puell Multiple. This indicator evaluates miners' daily revenue relative to its historical norm. Since miners are among the largest natural sellers in the market, their behavior directly affects supply. Low values of the multiple indicate that miners are not under acute pressure to sell their mined coins, which reduces selling pressure and creates favorable conditions for growth.
Overall Picture: Consolidation Instead of Euphoria
A combined analysis of these four indicators paints a clear picture: the "extreme" overheating of the past bull rally has largely subsided. Bitcoin is currently not in a phase of euphoria, but in a stage of healthy consolidation and accumulation. The market is digesting previous movements, and it is this understanding of the deep structure, rather than simply following the price, that is the key to a successful strategy in the coming months.
My expert opinion: At this stage of the cycle, we are observing a classic scenario of coins moving from weak hands to strong hands. The indicators show neither panic nor greed. This is an ideal environment for patient investors who understand that real opportunities open up not at peaks of hype, but in moments of calm, when the market has "caught its breath" and is preparing for the next move.