The 2026 FIFA World Cup became a turning point for the prediction platform industry. The total trading volume on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket reached a staggering $50 billion, far exceeding the figures of traditional legal US bookmakers.
In June alone, trading volume on Kalshi surged to $31 billion — 70% more than in May. The key driver was sports contracts, which accounted for 85% of the platform's total turnover. Polymarket, in turn, set a new monthly record, registering $10.8 billion, while its regulated US version added another $3.5 billion.
The joint project of Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group — Rothera — also did not stay on the sidelines, processing $2 billion. For comparison, research firm Eilers & Krejcik, even before the tournament began, predicted that legal US bookmakers would take bets totaling only $2.8–4.3 billion across all 104 matches. Meanwhile, Kalshi's markets dedicated to the championship alone generated $7.4 billion before the group stage even ended.
The growth was accompanied by a powerful influx of new audiences. According to Apptopia, by the end of June, the number of daily active users on Kalshi increased by 36% compared to mid-month. This was facilitated by the platform's strategic partnership with FIFA and active promotion through Fox Sports. At the same time, user activity on traditional giants — DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars — declined by 32–41% after an initial surge of interest in the tournament.
Notably, Kalshi and Polymarket together accounted for 78.5% of all installations among the six largest betting and prediction market apps. A year earlier, their combined share was only 6%.
Analytical Commentary: This case clearly demonstrates a tectonic shift in user behavior. Prediction markets offer not only higher liquidity and transparency but also a fundamentally different user experience based on decentralized mechanisms. Traditional bookmakers, despite their lobbying efforts, risk permanently losing the younger audience, which is increasingly choosing on-chain solutions. If the current trend continues, the balance of power could shift even more dramatically by the next major sporting event.