In a world where institutional players and spot ETFs are fundamentally changing the rules of the game, relying solely on Bitcoin's price is an unforgivable mistake. As a leading analyst, I constantly study on-chain data to see the real market picture. Today, we will break down four key indicators that allow us to accurately determine the cycle phase and participant sentiment.
MVRV Ratio: The Overheating Thermometer
The first and perhaps most important tool is MVRV. It compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization, i.e., the total value of all coins at their last movement price. When MVRV soars to historical highs, it is a sure sign of overheating and an inevitable correction. A decline in the indicator signals a normalization of valuations and often coincides with the cycle bottom.
NUPL: The Market's Emotional Barometer
The second indicator is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). It shows whether holders are in the "green" zone or suffering losses. Current NUPL values indicate that the euphoria of the 2025 bull market has faded, but total capitulation is still far off. This is a classic sign of a consolidation and accumulation phase, where the market is "digesting" the previous growth.
Realized Price: Fundamental Support
The third metric is the realized price, or the average acquisition price of all coins in circulation. This level serves as the strongest long-term support. Currently, it is around $53,000, significantly below current market prices. As long as Bitcoin trades above this mark, a bearish scenario is unlikely.
Puell Multiple: Miner Pressure
The fourth indicator is the Puell Multiple, which evaluates miners' revenues relative to the historical norm. Since miners are among the largest sellers in the market, this multiple helps measure potential selling pressure. Low values indicate that miners are not under stress, meaning the market is stable.
Overall Picture: Consolidation with an Eye on Growth
The combination of these four indicators paints a clear picture. The "extreme" overheating of the past bull market has completely subsided. Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase, where understanding market structure is far more important than blindly following the price. In the next part, I will analyze four more metrics—SOPR, Exchange Netflow, Exchange Reserve, and Exchange Whale Ratio—which will help determine who exactly is buying and selling, and where capital is moving.
My professional opinion: The market has passed the phase of maximum euphoria and is now laying the foundation for the next rally. Ignoring on-chain indicators during such a period means trading blindly. Those who understand these signals gain a significant advantage over the crowd.