The market does not see a reversal: a survey showed that the bottom of Bitcoin has not yet been reached.

Sentiment on the crypto market remains deeply bearish. Most participants do not believe the current Bitcoin correction is over. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong conducted a poll on whether BTC has reached a local bottom, and the results were telling: out of over 23,000 respondents, 56.2% answered "no." This suggests that investors expect further declines in the leading cryptocurrency.

At the time of writing this analysis, the Bitcoin price has dropped to a level corresponding to the estimated mining cost. Historically, this zone has always been a trend reversal point. The divergence between crowd sentiment and on-chain metrics creates the main intrigue of this summer.

Mining Cost vs. ETF Lull

Analyst Quentin Francois notes that Bitcoin is gradually finding a local bottom. He cites the estimated mining cost model as an argument. The price is currently within the range of miners' costs—from $61,200 to $73,500. Over the past ten years, every touch of this zone has led to a strong rebound.

Typically, when the price falls to the level of mining costs, weak miners capitulate. As a result, the supply of coins decreases, forming a long-term market bottom. However, the current liquidity situation hinders the optimistic scenario.

According to Glassnode, activity in U.S. spot ETFs has sharply declined. Trading volumes have fallen by 78% from their peak levels this year. It was the inflow of institutional capital that drove the market upward. Now, interest from large investors has noticeably waned. Experts emphasize the need for fresh capital inflows to resume the rally. Until then, the historical support at the cost level may be tested.

The U.S. Government Added Fuel to the Fire

Additional panic was sparked by the transfer of confiscated cryptocurrencies by U.S. authorities. A large sum was sent to the institutional platform Coinbase Prime. Transaction details according to Arkham:

As a result, social media instantly filled with alarming news about an allegedly impending sale of government reserves. However, a direct sale would violate Donald Trump's March 2025 executive order. According to the document, all seized coins must replenish the Strategic Reserve.

Consequently, the transfer of a large sum to the exchange does not yet mean an imminent liquidation. The Coinbase Prime platform provides clients with comprehensive custody and consolidation services. Nevertheless, the market reacts extremely sensitively to any transfers. Until fund inflows resume, such events will continue to scare buyers.

My professional opinion: the current situation is a classic example of divergence between fundamental metrics and market sentiment. The historical support at the mining cost level is strong, but without a recovery in institutional demand, we risk seeing a deeper correction. Investors should exercise caution and not succumb to panic based on rumors.