Sentiment in the crypto market remains extremely pessimistic. Most participants do not believe that the current Bitcoin correction is over and expect further declines. This is confirmed by the results of a large-scale survey conducted among 23,000 respondents: 56.2% of them voted against the idea that a local bottom has already been reached.
At the same time, the price of Bitcoin has dropped to a zone that historically coincides with the estimated mining cost. This range has typically served as a trend reversal point. However, the current divergence between crowd sentiment and on-chain metrics creates the main intrigue of this summer.
Mining Cost vs. ETF Lull
An analysis of the mining cost model shows that Bitcoin is currently within the range of $61,200 to $73,500. Over the past ten years, every touch of this level has led to a powerful rebound. The logic is simple: when the price falls to the level of miners' expenses, weak players capitulate, the supply of coins decreases, and a long-term bottom forms.
However, the optimistic scenario is hindered by a sharp decline in activity in U.S. spot ETFs. Trading volumes have dropped by 78% from their peak levels this year. It was the inflow of institutional capital that previously drove the market upward. Now, interest from large investors has noticeably waned, and a fresh influx of funds is needed to resume the rally. The historical support at the cost level may face serious tests.
The U.S. Government Added Fuel to the Fire
Additional panic was triggered by the transfer of confiscated crypto assets by U.S. authorities to the institutional platform Coinbase Prime. According to Arkham data, this involves 3,940 BTC ($243.95 million) and 30,014 ETH ($53.09 million) seized in cases related to illegal activities.
Social media quickly filled with alarming news about an allegedly impending sale of government reserves. However, a direct sale would violate Donald Trump's executive order from March 2025, which stipulates that all seized coins must be added to the Strategic Reserve. A transfer to an exchange does not mean imminent liquidation — the Coinbase Prime platform provides storage and consolidation services. Nevertheless, an empty glass reacts extremely sensitively to any transfers.
My expert assessment: Until the inflow of funds into the funds resumes, such events will scare buyers, and bearish sentiment will dominate. However, the historical support at the cost level is a powerful fundamental factor that should not be dismissed too early.