The dominant mood in the cryptocurrency market today is deep pessimism. Monitoring social media and surveys of key industry figures shows that the majority of participants do not believe in a quick recovery for the main digital currency.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong conducted a large-scale survey of his audience, asking a direct question: has bitcoin reached its local bottom? The results were telling. Out of more than 23,000 respondents who voted, 56.2% answered no. This indicates that bearish sentiment has become firmly entrenched in the minds of traders and long-term holders.
Nevertheless, the picture is not as clear-cut as it might seem at first glance. Currently, the price of bitcoin has dropped to a zone that has historically served as strong support and a trend reversal point. This refers to the estimated mining cost level, which today ranges from $61,200 to $73,500.
The Battle of Fundamental Factors
On one hand, analysts such as Quentin François point out that every touch of this zone over the past ten years has led to a powerful rebound. The logic is simple: when the price falls below the mining cost, weak miners are forced to capitulate, the supply of coins decreases, and the market forms a long-term bottom. This is a classic cyclical reversal scenario.
On the other hand, the current macroeconomic situation introduces serious adjustments. The main brake on the bullish scenario is an unprecedented decline in activity in U.S. spot ETFs. Trading volumes in these instruments have fallen by 78% from their peak levels this year. The inflow of institutional capital through ETFs was the primary driver of growth, and its disappearance creates a demand vacuum.
As long as major players remain neutral or withdraw funds, the historical support at the mining cost level may face a serious test. For an upward trend to resume, the market desperately needs a new influx of liquidity.
Government Transactions as an Additional Stress Factor
The situation is exacerbated by actions of U.S. authorities. The transfer of confiscated crypto assets to the institutional platform Coinbase Prime has sparked a new wave of panic. This involves significant volumes: 3,940 BTC (about $244 million) and 30,014 ETH (about $53 million), seized in cases of fraud and money laundering.
Although no direct sale is occurring — according to Donald Trump's decree from March 2025, all seized coins must replenish the Strategic Reserve, not be released to the market — the very fact of moving such volumes to an exchange platform frightens retail investors. Coinbase Prime is used for custodial storage and consolidation, not for immediate liquidation. However, in conditions of low liquidity, any hint of a potential sell-off triggers excessive volatility.
My expert opinion: The divergence between on-chain metrics, indicating a buying zone, and the "bearish" sentiment of the crowd creates a classic consolidation scenario. Until institutional interest returns, we will observe a sluggish correction with periodic panic spikes. However, it is precisely in such moments that the foundation for the next major rally is laid — provided the macroeconomic backdrop does not deteriorate.