<p>The bear market isn't giving up: the crypto community doesn't believe in Bitcoin's bottom</p>

Sentiment on the crypto market remains subdued. A recent survey conducted among thousands of participants showed that more than half of respondents do not believe in a local bottom for Bitcoin. Out of 23,000 voters, 56.2% answered "no" to the question of whether the decline of the leading cryptocurrency has ended. This is a powerful signal: the crowd expects further decline, not a reversal.

Meanwhile, the BTC price has dropped to levels that correspond to the estimated cost of mining. Historically, such a range has always become a trend reversal zone. The divergence between crowd sentiment and on-chain metrics creates the main intrigue of this summer.

Mining Cost vs. ETF Lull

According to analysts, Bitcoin is gradually finding a local bottom. The argument is based on the estimated mining cost model. The price is currently within the miners' cost range of $61.2k to $73.5k. Over the past decade, every touch of this zone has led to a strong rebound.

Typically, when the price falls to the level of mining costs, weak miners capitulate. As a result, the supply of coins decreases, and a long-term market bottom forms.

However, the optimistic scenario is hindered by the current liquidity situation. Activity in U.S. spot ETFs has sharply declined. Trading volumes have fallen by 78% from their peak levels this year. It was the inflow of institutional capital that previously drove the market upward.

On the contrary, interest from large investors has now noticeably waned. Experts emphasize the need for fresh capital inflows to resume the rally. Until then, the historical support at the cost level may face tests.

U.S. Government Adds Fuel to the Fire

Additional panic was triggered by the transfer of confiscated cryptocurrencies by U.S. authorities. A large sum was sent to the institutional platform Coinbase Prime.

Transaction details according to Arkham:

As a result, social networks were instantly flooded with alarming news about an allegedly impending sale of government reserves. However, a direct sale would violate Donald Trump's executive order from March 2025. According to the document, all seized coins must replenish the Strategic Reserve.

Consequently, the transfer of a large sum to the exchange does not yet imply an imminent liquidation. The Coinbase Prime platform provides clients with comprehensive storage and consolidation services. Nevertheless, an empty order book reacts extremely painfully to any transfers. Until fund inflows resume, such events will continue to scare buyers.

Expert opinion: The market is in a wait-and-see phase. Bearish crowd sentiment and declining ETF volumes create prerequisites for a deep correction, but historical support at the mining cost level remains a powerful bullish factor. The key trigger for a reversal is the resumption of institutional demand. Until this happens, every large transfer of confiscated assets will be perceived as a bearish signal, increasing volatility.