Sentiments among crypto market participants remain deeply bearish. Most traders and investors do not believe in a quick recovery for Bitcoin and expect further declines. This is clearly demonstrated by a recent poll conducted by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. Out of over 23,000 respondents, 56.2% answered "no" to the question of whether BTC has reached a local bottom. Such statistics are a powerful signal of the dominance of fear and uncertainty.
Mining Cost vs. Market Panic
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has dropped to a zone that has historically acted as critical support. Analysts, particularly Quentin François, are drawing attention to the mining cost model. Currently, the BTC price is fluctuating in the range of $61,200 to $73,500 — exactly the average cost of mining. Over the past ten years, every touch of this zone has led to a powerful trend reversal. The logic is simple: weak miners capitulate, the supply of coins shrinks, and a long-term market bottom forms.
However, a serious obstacle stands in the way of the optimistic scenario — a sharp decline in activity in U.S. spot ETFs. According to Glassnode, trading volumes have fallen by 78% from this year's peak levels. Institutional capital inflows were the main driver of the rally, and their disappearance deprives the market of a key growth factor. Until major players return, the historical support at the cost level may face severe tests.
The U.S. Government Adds Fuel to the Fire
Additional nervousness was sparked by news of the U.S. authorities transferring confiscated crypto assets. A large sum — 3,940 BTC ($243.95 million) and 30,014 ETH ($53.09 million) — was sent to the institutional platform Coinbase Prime. Alarming rumors about an impending sale of government reserves quickly spread on social media.
However, it is worth noting that a direct sell-off would violate Donald Trump's March 2025 executive order, which mandates that all seized coins be directed to the Strategic Reserve. The transfer to Coinbase Prime is most likely a technical consolidation of assets, not preparation for liquidation. Nevertheless, an empty order book reacts extremely painfully to any movements. Until ETF inflows resume, such events will scare off buyers.
My view: The divergence between optimistic on-chain metrics (the cost zone) and the bearish sentiment of the crowd creates the main intrigue of this summer. The market is at a bifurcation point. Either we will see a classic bounce from historical support, or, in the absence of institutional demand, Bitcoin could fall further and test deeper levels. I lean toward the first scenario, but only on the condition that interest from large funds resumes. For now, caution is paramount.