The May update to the partnership terms between Circle, Coinbase, and the Hyperliquid platform has raised serious concerns among analysts. According to my analysis, the new revenue-sharing scheme for USDC stablecoin reserves creates structural risks for both companies. Previously, Coinbase and Circle split USDC revenues almost equally, but now the American exchange considers funds on the decentralized exchange (perp-DEX) as held "on the platform," passing 90% of the resulting profit to Hyperliquid. This fundamentally changes the stablecoin's economics.
What lies behind the revised forecasts
Approximately $6 billion in USDC is concentrated on Hyperliquid — roughly 8% of the total token supply in circulation. The platform is experiencing explosive growth: in July, trading volume exceeded $150 billion, and its share relative to Binance reached 11.5%. However, as I see it, it is precisely Hyperliquid's dominance in the decentralized perpetual futures exchange segment that creates a "prisoner's dilemma" for Circle and Coinbase. JPMorgan has already lowered profit forecasts for both companies, indicating that the change in partnership undermines their joint USDC monetization model.
An additional pressure factor is the overall weakening of the crypto market. Since March, USDC's market capitalization has shrunk from $80 billion to $73 billion, and the entire stablecoin sector has lost $10 billion since May. However, in the long term, high interest rates may partially offset these losses, supporting income from USDC reserves.
Expansion in Japan: new horizons for USDC
Despite negative signals, Circle is actively seeking new markets. On July 14, Japan's largest payment system, JCB, signed a memorandum of understanding with the USDC issuer. The parties plan to develop stablecoin-based solutions for cross-border payments, domestic settlements, and goods payments, including tourism operations. The first phase will be a pilot for internal fund transfers at JCB, which serves approximately 140 million cardholders and over 40 million merchant locations worldwide.
Additionally, at the end of June, Circle announced a joint project with Japanese financial corporation Nomura. A USDC-based currency settlement service for local companies is planned for launch in 2027. These steps may partially offset the pressure on the stablecoin, but in my opinion, they do not solve the fundamental problem — the concentration of risks on Hyperliquid.
My expert assessment: The current situation resembles a classic growth trap, where the dominance of one platform can undermine the asset's economics. Hyperliquid is becoming a "black hole" for USDC, and if Circle and Coinbase do not diversify their partnerships, dependence on this exchange will make them vulnerable to any changes in the derivatives market. Japan is a promising but slow move. In the short term, pressure on forecasts will persist.