The global energy market has faced a serious challenge: the price of the benchmark North Sea Brent crude surpassed $85 per barrel during trading on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the American WTI crude settled above $80. However, this rise is driven not so much by speculative movements as by fundamental structural problems.
Key commodity indices have been steadily rising for the third consecutive day, with the main driver being the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz region. But as professional traders note, the current volatility is just the tip of the iceberg. A far more alarming signal is the critically low volume of spare production capacity capable of compensating for potential supply disruptions in the future.
Strategic buffer running out
June Guo, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, is closely monitoring the state of the so-called "safety buffer." In her analysis, she noted that the reserve, which had managed to offset supply disruptions for several months, is now almost completely exhausted. This refers to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Throughout the conflict, Washington has been actively drawing down reserves, releasing them onto the market to curb price spikes. According to Guo, if the US and Iran continue on a path of escalation rather than seeking compromise, oil could sharply increase in price.
Earlier, at a G7 meeting, the option of releasing up to 400 million barrels from reserves onto the market amid past spikes was already discussed. A top executive at ExxonMobil also warned about this, stating that global oil reserves are declining at a rapid pace.
Trump links strikes to lifting blockade
US President Donald Trump has raised the stakes. In an interview with Fox News, he stated that strikes on Iran could become more intense next week. Among the possible targets are power plants and bridges if Tehran does not return to negotiations. Iran, in turn, does not rule out imposing its own fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Notably, Trump changed his position on another issue: he abandoned the planned 20% levy on cargo passing through the strait. Instead, according to him, Gulf countries will offer trade and investment agreements. On the same day, the US resumed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, continuing previous attempts to establish control over the strait.
Shipping companies quickly responded to the increased military risks. According to MarineTraffic data, only 57 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the past weekend—half the number from the previous week. For comparison, before the active phase of hostilities began in February, daily traffic was around 130 large-tonnage vessels.
Wall Street prices in oil at $100
Bart Melek, head of commodity market strategy at TD Securities, believes the rise could continue. "A move to $100 is quite possible if it becomes clear that an oil deficit is a real and growing risk," he noted. The US Department of Energy, however, disagrees with the thesis of a deficit. On Monday, the agency reported that, with military support, 8.5 million barrels of oil passed through the strait—a figure consistent with normal supply volumes.
The rise in oil prices could complicate the inflation situation. Previously, analysts expected the June CPI report to record a further slowdown in price growth, aided by a decline in fuel costs. Now, price dynamics will depend on Trump's next steps and Tehran's decisions regarding further negotiations.
My professional opinion: The market has found itself in a classic trap: geopolitical risk on one side and the depletion of buffer reserves on the other. If the conflict drags on, we will see not just speculative growth but a structural shift in pricing that will hit the global economy and, consequently, crypto markets, which remain sensitive to macroeconomic shocks.