The prediction market platform Kalshi has taken a decisive step toward institutionalizing the computing power market by launching forward curves based on the prices of its own prediction markets. As reported by Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, these curves are now available for Nvidia B200, H200, and A100 chips — key components of modern AI infrastructure.
Why does the market need forward curves for computing power?
Forward curves are not just charts. They are a tool that allows market participants to form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risks. Mansour rightly compares the current state of the computing power market to the oil market before the advent of the NYMEX exchange. Today, computing power is traded exclusively through over-the-counter deals — directly between producers and consumers, without transparent pricing.
However, unlike crude oil, computing power is not a homogeneous commodity. It encompasses a multitude of chips, classes, terms, locations, and contract structures. It is here, according to Mansour, that prediction markets demonstrate their unique strength: they are capable of aggregating the disparate views of participants into transparent and liquid prices for various delivery dates.
What could the computing power market become?
The scale of opportunities is enormous. According to Mansour, the largest data center operators already spend over $700 billion annually on computing power, and by 2030, this market could grow to $7–10 trillion. If it follows the path of traditional commodity markets, the effect could be multiplicative: a liquid derivatives market, in the estimation of Kalshi's CEO, could surpass the underlying spot market by 10 to 20 times.
Of course, computing power is not yet standardized enough for full-fledged exchange trading. But the launch of forward curves is a first step in this direction. Mansour calls them just the beginning. Next will come futures and perpetual contracts, which will help show how prices for different chip models rise and fall and how they are interconnected.
Analyst's comment: This event could be a turning point not only for the Nvidia chip market but for the entire AI infrastructure industry. The emergence of transparent price benchmarks will reduce information asymmetry between producers and consumers, which, in turn, will accelerate capital inflows and make the market more efficient. For the crypto community, this is also a signal: traditional financial instruments are increasingly penetrating the realm of decentralized computing and AI.