The Bitcoin market is once again exhibiting atypical behavior. Contrary to the expectations of many participants, long-term holders of the leading cryptocurrency are in no rush to lock in profits, even against the backdrop of historically high prices. An analysis of the adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator for this group of investors points not to an approach toward the cycle's peak, but to a process of "resetting" the asset's valuation.
MVRV Decline: A Valuation Reset, Not a Sell-Off
The adjusted MVRV for holders with a horizon of six months to ten years has recently contracted to levels that, in the past, have consistently preceded periods of "valuation reset." The key nuance: unlike the peaks of 2017 and 2021, the current value of the indicator is far from the "extreme profit" zone. This means that experienced investors are not displaying the greed typically associated with market tops. On the contrary, their on-chain behavior reflects composure and patience — they are holding onto their coins, not getting rid of them.
Divergence of Price and Cost Basis
Particular attention should be paid to the divergence between the falling MVRV and the rising realized price of the same group of holders. This suggests that long-term capital remains committed to the asset and is gradually being "revalued" upwards. The recent price correction of BTC was driven more by a pullback in the speculative premium than by a mass capitulation of confident "whales." In fact, the cost basis of long-term holders continues to rise, creating an increasingly solid support level.
A Healthy Structure for New Growth
This dynamic forms a much healthier market structure than the typical final stage of a bull market. The reduction of speculative excess without undermining long-term holding is a sign of maturity. Supply for new buyers remains structurally limited, and the potential for the next upward move will depend entirely on the strength of fresh demand.
My Expert Assessment: The MVRV signal is one of the most reliable indicators of market "overheating." Its current state points not to the end of the cycle, but to its healthy middle. The market has "reset" its valuation, and now the foundation for the next surge looks stronger than many assume. The key question is whether institutional and retail demand can absorb the available supply at these levels.