The cryptocurrency market received a powerful boost after the release of June inflation data in the United States. Bitcoin not only surpassed the $65,000 mark but also held its gains, demonstrating resilience amid macroeconomic changes. At the moment, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $65,340, up 2% in the last 24 hours, confirming the persistence of bullish sentiment among traders.
CPI Data: Key Growth Driver
Annual inflation in the U.S. slowed from 4.2% to 3.5%, significantly beating the consensus forecast of 3.8%. The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, also declined — from 2.9% to 2.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.4%, marking the steepest drop since April 2020. The main factor behind this decline was the reduction in energy prices.
Bitcoin's reaction was immediate: within minutes, the price surged from $62,000 to $64,900. Ethereum also showed impressive momentum, rising over 4% to reach $1,933. Analysts recorded a spike in buying activity on major exchanges: the volume of purchases on Binance in the first hour after the data release amounted to $1.2 billion, on OKX — $23.6 million, and on Deribit — $15 million.
Speculative Nature of the Move and the Fed's Stance
However, as experts note, the current rally is largely speculative in nature. A significant inflow of capital into the derivatives market suggests that traders are betting on high volatility rather than forming a sustainable long-term trend. The key event was the speech by the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh before the House committee. He acknowledged the disinflationary impact of AI on the economy but made it clear that the regulator is not ready to declare victory over inflation.
His statement: "Some may look at today's data and say, 'Mission accomplished, everything is fine.' I don't think so," effectively cooled expectations of an imminent easing of monetary policy. Nevertheless, the probability of a key rate hike at the July 28–29 meeting dropped sharply — from 42% to 12.3%, which the market took positively.
Capital Inflows into ETFs and a Trend Shift
Against the backdrop of positive data, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs resumed. The net inflow on July 14 amounted to $181 million, with $139 million of that coming from BlackRock's IBIT fund. This followed a significant outflow of $425 million the previous day, signaling a shift in sentiment among institutional investors. Ethereum funds also attracted $58.34 million, with the entire volume coming from BlackRock's ETF, while other products showed zero movement.
Nevertheless, since the beginning of July, there has been pronounced uncertainty: periods of inflows and outflows into exchange-traded funds alternate every few days without a clear directional trend.
My Expert Commentary: The market finds itself trapped between positive macroeconomic data and the cautious rhetoric of the Fed. Bitcoin holding above $65,000 is a strong signal, but for a sustained breakout into the $70,000+ zone, not only statistics but also clear signals from the regulator about the start of a rate-cutting cycle are needed. For now, we are seeing only a game of expectations, which could give way to a sharp correction.