The digital asset market showed a confident reaction to fresh macroeconomic data from the US. Following the release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, Bitcoin not only surpassed the $65,000 mark but also managed to hold above this level, retaining most of the gained momentum. At the time of analysis, the leading cryptocurrency is trading near $65,340, showing a daily increase of about 2%.
Inflation Slows: What Does It Mean for the Market?
Annual inflation in the US in June fell from 4.2% to 3.5%, significantly beating the consensus forecast of 3.8%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, decreased from 2.9% to 2.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped by 0.4% — the largest decline since April 2020, largely driven by cheaper energy costs.
Bitcoin prices reacted instantly: within minutes of the data release, the price surged from $62,000 to $64,900. Ethereum also showed impressive momentum, rising over 4% to $1,933. According to my data, within the first hour after the report, purchase volumes on Binance reached $1.2 billion, while on OKX and Deribit they hit $23.6 million and $15 million, respectively.
Speculative Impulse or Start of a Trend?
It's important to understand the nature of this move. The rise was driven by a massive influx of buyers into the derivatives market, indicating a speculative nature to the movement. It's too early to talk about the formation of a sustainable upward trend — traders are actively using high volatility for short-term profits rather than long-term investments.
Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, speaking before a House committee, noted the disinflationary impact of artificial intelligence on the economy but emphasized that the regulator is not ready to declare victory over inflation. His statement — "Some may look at today's data and say: 'Mission accomplished, everything is fine.' I don't think so" — signals a continuation of hawkish rhetoric. Nevertheless, the probability of a rate hike at the July 28–29 meeting has sharply declined from 42% to 12.3%.
Capital Inflow into ETFs: A Change in Sentiment?
Against the backdrop of positive macro data, we are seeing a resumption of capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. On July 14, net inflows totaled $181 million, with $139 million coming from BlackRock's IBIT fund. This is a sharp contrast to the outflow of $425 million the day before. Ethereum funds also attracted $58.34 million, fully backed by BlackRock's ETF.
However, it's worth noting that since the beginning of July, periods of inflow and outflow have alternated every few days, without forming a clear direction. This indicates ongoing uncertainty among institutional investors.
My Expert View
Slowing inflation is undoubtedly a positive signal for the market, but we shouldn't forget that on July 8, Bitcoin fell to ~$61,700 amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. The market remains extremely sensitive to external shocks. Holding the $65,000 level is an important technical signal, but sustainable growth requires consolidation above $66,000–$67,000. For now, we are dealing with a classic reaction to macro statistics, which will be followed by a period of reassessment. Investors should remain cautious and not give in to euphoria — volatility hasn't gone away.