The SpaceX (SPCX) stock market is undergoing a serious correction. Since mid-June, when the shares reached an all-time high of $225.64, the decline has been nearly 40%. Yesterday's trading session closed at $136.08, just $1 above the offering price of $135. The daily chart shows three consecutive red candles — a clear signal of seller dominance.
Technical Picture: Loss of Key Levels
Sellers have successively breached two important support zones. First, in mid-June, the $168–171 range fell, which then transformed into resistance. An attempted bounce from this zone on July 1 only confirmed the role reversal of the levels. Then, on July 8, the next bastion — $149–153 — also failed to hold. A retest of this area ended in failure, indicating extreme buyer weakness.
However, on the hourly chart, signs of a potential reversal are emerging. A "falling wedge" pattern is forming — a classic bullish pattern that often resolves with a sharp rise. The technical target for this pattern is $157.89, suggesting a growth potential of nearly 15% from current levels. An additional argument for the bulls is the bullish divergence on the RSI (14) indicator: on July 14, a higher low was recorded on the indicator, while the price updated a local low. This is the first divergence since the correction began.
Fundamental Risks and Triggers
The situation is complicated by fundamental factors. At the end of July, the unlocking of the first tranche of shares — 20% of the total volume — is expected. This event coincides with the release of the quarterly report. Another 10% of shares will only be unlocked if the price closes above $175.50, which seems unlikely given the current dynamics. Additional pressure came from the June bond issuance of $25 billion with a yield of 5.35–6.65%, which only intensified the correction.
The main catalyst for near-term movements will be the 13th test launch of Starship, scheduled for Thursday, July 16. For the first time, the rocket will orbit 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites, adding 60 terabits per second of bandwidth — 20 times more than a single Falcon 9 flight.
Forecast and My Assessment
A successful launch could act as a catalyst for a strong rebound. The shares are currently squeezed between a bullish pattern with a target of $158 and the offering level of $135. A breakout above the $149–153 zone would open the path to $158 and beyond. However, a break below $135 would be catastrophic — below that, the shares would have no technical support, and the decline could accelerate.
My opinion: SpaceX is a company that is changing the industry, but the current correction reflects not only technical factors but also a reassessment of risks by investors. The 13th Starship launch is not just a test but a demonstration of the technology's commercial maturity. Success will restore confidence, failure will deepen the correction. In my view, the growth potential still outweighs the risks, but only on the condition of a successful flight.