The SpaceX stock market is experiencing a serious shock. Since mid-June, the company's market capitalization has shrunk by almost 40% from its all-time high of $225.64. In pre-market trading, SPCX shares are trading near the $137 mark, only slightly above the placement price of $135 and yesterday's low of $135.52. Such a sharp decline calls into question the company's short-term prospects, but the technical picture is sending mixed signals.
On the daily chart, three consecutive red candles have formed. Yesterday's close at $136.08 recorded a decline of 2.20%. Key support levels were broken one after another: the $168–171 zone fell in mid-June, and then the $149–153 range did not hold on July 8. These levels have now turned into resistance, and for a recovery, bulls need to push the price back above $149–153.
Fundamental pressure is mounting. At the end of July, the unlocking of the first tranche of 20% of shares is expected, coinciding with the release of the second-quarter report. Another 10% of shares can only be obtained if the price closes above $175.50 — a target that seems almost unattainable given the current dynamics. Additional pressure came from SpaceX's June entry into the bond market with a $25 billion placement and a yield of 5.35–6.65%, which intensified the correction and led to a reduction in Elon Musk's fortune by more than $500 billion.
Technical Analysis: "Falling Wedge" Offers Hope
On the hourly chart, a more optimistic picture is emerging. After a bounce around $176 on July 1, SPCX is compressing inside a "falling wedge" pattern — a classic bullish formation. The technical target for this pattern is $157.89, which is almost 15% above current levels. However, the scenario will only play out if the price returns above the $149–153 zone, which now acts as resistance.
The bullish momentum is also confirmed by the RSI indicator. On July 14, the first bullish divergence since the start of the correction formed: the RSI showed a higher low, while the price updated a local low. This is a classic signal of weakening bearish pressure.
Key Catalyst: 13th Starship Launch
On Thursday, the 13th test flight of Starship will take place — the main trigger for price movement. For the first time, the rocket will launch 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. This payload will add 60 terabits per second of bandwidth — more than 20 times the capacity of a single Falcon 9 flight.
A successful launch could be a catalyst for a breakout from the "falling wedge" and confirm Elon Musk's bold valuations. However, a mission failure could send the price below the IPO level of $135, after which the shares would have no significant support left.
My analysis: The current situation resembles a classic bear trap. The technical picture on the hourly chart points to a high probability of a bounce, especially given the bullish RSI divergence. However, fundamental risks — the unlocking of shares and a weak market — could negate any positive momentum. The 13th Starship launch will be a decisive test not only for the rocket but also for investor sentiment.