Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) stock is undergoing a significant correction. Since mid-June, the company's pre-market capitalization has dropped nearly 40% from its all-time high of $225.64, reached in the same month. At the time of writing this analysis, the shares are trading near the placement level of $135, recording a yesterday's low of $135.52. However, despite such an aggressive decline, a bullish "falling wedge" pattern is forming on the hourly chart, which could trigger a bounce to $158.
Technical Picture: Loss of Key Levels and First Signs of Reversal
On the daily timeframe, we observe three consecutive red candles. Yesterday's close at $136.08 with a 2.20% decline confirmed a breakout of two important support zones. First, sellers breached the $168–171 range in mid-June, and then, on July 8, they surrendered the $149–153 level without a fight. A retest of this zone ended in failure, indicating a shift in momentum to the bears.
Fundamental pressure is intensifying. At the end of July, the unlocking of the first tranche of 20% of shares is expected, coinciding with the second-quarter report. Another 10% will only become available upon closing above $175.50 — a target that seems difficult to achieve under the current trend. An additional pressure factor was the June bond issuance of $25 billion with a yield of 5.35–6.65%, which only exacerbated the correction. Elon Musk's net worth, by my estimates, has shrunk by more than $500 billion.
Bullish Scenario on the Hourly Chart: Wedge and RSI Divergence
Despite the grim picture on the daily chart, the intraday structure provides reason for cautious optimism. After the July 1 bounce from $176, SPCX has been consolidating within a "falling wedge" — a pattern that often resolves to the upside. The technical target for this pattern is $157.89, approximately 15% above current levels. However, the scenario will only materialize if the price returns above the $149–153 zone, which now acts as resistance.
On the bulls' side is a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI (14) indicator. On July 14, the indicator formed a higher low, while the price updated a local low. This is the first divergence since the start of the correction, and it signals a weakening of the downward momentum.
Key Catalyst: 13th Starship Launch
The main driver for SPCX in the coming hours will be the 13th test flight of Starship, scheduled for Thursday, July 16. For the first time, the rocket will deploy 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. This payload will add 60 terabits per second of bandwidth — more than 20 times the capacity of a single Falcon 9 flight.
A successful launch could act as a catalyst to break out of the range and confirm Musk's ambitious valuations. Conversely, a failure would drop the price below the IPO level of $135, leaving the shares without significant support below.
My conclusion: At this point, SPCX is caught between a bullish pattern targeting $158 and the placement level, below which it cannot fall. The market is at a bifurcation point, and the outcome of the 13th launch will determine the direction of movement for the coming weeks. Retail investor interest, including through tokenized products on Solana with a quarterly turnover of $5.77 billion, only underscores the high speculative interest in the stock.