The stock market has already begun rewarding companies that investors consider future beneficiaries of artificial intelligence — and it is doing so in advance, regardless of their current financial performance. Economists, after analyzing a massive dataset of real AI consumption, have identified a persistent gap in returns: shares of such "candidates" grow on average 0.64% faster per week than those of other issuers. This phenomenon has been dubbed the "AI premium."
The study is based on an analysis of 380 trillion tokens — the smallest units of data generated by neural networks. This dataset, collected by the OpenRouter platform from January 2024 to April 2026, covers over 400 models, including GPT, Claude, and DeepSeek, and represents about 2% of global monthly AI consumption. This volume of data has made it possible, for the first time, to objectively measure how real-world technology usage affects the value of public companies.
How was the "AI premium" calculated?
To assess the impact of AI on markets, a special metric was developed — the "AI factor." This tool records weekly changes in global neural network consumption. All companies were then divided into two groups: those whose shares are sensitive to the rise in AI popularity, and those that barely react to such fluctuations. Comparing the returns of these groups revealed the sought-after gap of 0.64% per week in favor of the former.
At first glance, 0.64% per week seems insignificant. But over the long term, this effect compounds, creating a massive gap in market capitalization. The market, in essence, constantly revalues assets based on future expectations rather than current results.
The key point: the status of "AI beneficiary" is determined solely by investor expectations, not by whether a company has implemented the technology today. A business may not use neural networks at all, but if the market believes in its prospects, its shares receive the premium. Trust forms first, then capitalization. As one of the study's co-authors noted, markets now reward the very proximity of companies to cutting-edge models in the US and Europe.
Who benefits and where?
The first and most important finding: the premium has extended far beyond the technology sector. Not only IT giants, but also retailers, consumer goods manufacturers, and even heavy industry are seeing higher returns. Investors expect a massive boost in labor productivity across all areas of business thanks to AI. This is not just a tech narrative, but a much broader story affecting companies and workers in all parts of the economy.
The second unexpected factor is geography. The bulk of the premium is concentrated in the US and Europe. These regions are closely tied to building infrastructure and constructing modern data centers. In China and emerging markets, this effect is significantly weaker. Market mechanisms reward proximity to advanced developments that are still accessible to only a few.
The third finding is the role of the user base structure. One might assume that millions of ordinary users drive the market. However, detailed analysis showed the opposite: the financial premium is formed exclusively by the professional segment. This includes complex, lengthy queries and paid subscriptions. It is professionals working with cutting-edge AI, not those occasionally trying free models, who set the trend.
Expert commentary: This work is yet another confirmation that we are witnessing not just hype around a new technology, but a fundamental restructuring of market expectations. Investors are already pricing in future productivity gains that AI could deliver across various sectors. The key risk here is potential disappointment: if the promised productivity growth does not materialize, the "AI premium" could quickly evaporate, triggering a correction in overheated stocks.