The digital asset market received a powerful catalyst after the release of June inflation data in the United States. The first cryptocurrency not only held above the $65,000 mark but also retained most of its momentum, despite cautious statements from the new Fed Chair. At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading near $65,340, showing a daily increase of 2%.
Inflation is slowing: what does this mean for the crypto market?
Annual inflation in the US fell from 4.2% to 3.5% against a forecast of 3.8%, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) decreased from 2.9% to 2.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped by 0.4% — the largest decline since April 2020. The key driver was the reduction in energy prices.
Bitcoin's reaction was immediate: within minutes, the price surged from $62,000 to $64,900. Ethereum rose by more than 4%, to $1,933. According to my data, on Binance, the volume of ETH purchases reached $1.2 billion in the first hour after the CPI release. A surge in activity was also recorded on OKX ($23.6 million) and Deribit ($15 million).
Derivatives market: speculative spike or start of a trend?
Analysts note that the current growth is largely speculative in nature. The influx of buyers into the derivatives market is driving price movement but has not yet formed a sustained upward trend. Traders are actively using high volatility, but fundamental confirmations are needed for long-term growth.
Fed: caution above all
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in a speech before the House committee, noted the disinflationary impact of AI on the economy but emphasized that the regulator is not ready to declare victory over inflation. "Mission accomplished? I don't think so," he stated, giving no signals about lowering the key rate. Nevertheless, the probability of a rate hike at the July 28-29 meeting decreased from 42% to 12.3%.
Inflows into ETFs: BlackRock sets the tone
On July 14, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $181 million, with $139 million of that going to BlackRock's IBIT fund. This is a sharp reversal after an outflow of $425 million the day before. Ethereum funds attracted $58.34 million — the entire volume was provided by BlackRock's ETF, while others showed zero dynamics.
Since the beginning of July, periods of inflows and outflows into exchange-traded funds have been alternating every few days, indicating a lack of a clear direction. However, the reaction to macroeconomic data demonstrates the market's high sensitivity to monetary policy.
My analysis: The slowdown in inflation is a positive signal for risky assets, but the Fed's caution and the speculative nature of the growth suggest that Bitcoin is not yet ready for a sustained rally. The key drivers remain ETF dynamics and macroeconomic data, especially ahead of the Fed meeting at the end of July. If the regulator holds its pause, we could see a test of the $67,000–$68,000 level.