The market has already begun rewarding companies that investors believe will be the main beneficiaries of artificial intelligence, even if they have not yet implemented the technology. A new large-scale study, based on an analysis of 380 trillion AI tokens, has identified a persistent return gap that experts have dubbed the "AI premium." Stocks of such companies grow on average 0.64% faster per week than those of other market participants.
How the AI Premium Was Calculated
The study is based on a unique dataset covering real AI consumption from January 2024 to April 2026. The data, collected from the OpenRouter platform, includes over 400 models — from GPT and Claude to DeepSeek — and reflects approximately 2% of global monthly neural network consumption.
Economists developed a special "AI factor" — an indicator that weekly tracks changes in global user activity. Companies were then divided into two groups: those whose stocks are sensitive to the growing popularity of neural networks, and those whose value barely reacts to such changes.
The result was telling: the difference in returns between these groups was 0.64% per week. This figure may seem insignificant, but in the long term, it creates a massive gap. The stock market essentially constantly revalues assets based on future expectations rather than current financial performance.
Who Benefits
The key finding is that the premium has extended far beyond the technology sector. Not only IT giants but also retailers, consumer goods manufacturers, and even heavy industry are seeing higher returns. Investors expect a broad increase in labor productivity across all areas of business. As one of the co-authors noted, the AI story is not just a technological narrative but a much broader one affecting companies and workers in all parts of the economy.
The second unexpected factor is the geographic distribution of profits. The bulk of the premium is concentrated in the U.S. and Europe, where infrastructure is being built and modern data centers are being constructed. In China and emerging markets, this effect is significantly weaker. Market mechanisms reward proximity to cutting-edge developments, which are currently available to only a few.
The third discovery was the role of the user base structure. It would be logical to assume that the market is driven by millions of ordinary users. However, a detailed analysis revealed a different picture: the financial premium is formed exclusively by the professional segment — complex long queries and paid subscriptions.
My analysis: This study is a powerful signal for the market. It confirms that we are witnessing not just hype but a fundamental revaluation of assets. Investors are already pricing in future benefits from AI, and this applies not only to "pure" tech companies. The key risk here is overheating of expectations: if the real integration of AI into business processes turns out to be slower than assumed, the "AI premium" could quickly turn into a "disappointment discount." Watch the depth of implementation, not the loud statements.