SpaceX (SPCX) shares are experiencing a serious decline: since mid-June, the instrument has lost nearly 40% of its value, dropping from an all-time high of $225.64 to the $135–137 zone in pre-market trading. The daily chart shows three consecutive red candles, and yesterday's close at $136.08 confirmed a breakdown of two key support levels — $168–171 and $149–153. Sellers are acting decisively: every bounce from these zones has ended with a new low.
Fundamental risks and pressure on market capitalization
The situation is complicated not only by technical factors. At the end of July, the unlocking of the first tranche — 20% of the company's shares — is scheduled. Another 10% will only be available if the price closes above $175.50, which is practically unattainable given the current dynamics. Additional pressure came from the June bond issuance of $25 billion with a yield of 5.35–6.65%, which triggered an intensification of the correction. Elon Musk's losses over this period have exceeded $500 billion of his personal fortune.
Technical analysis: "falling wedge" and bullish divergence
On the hourly chart, a "falling wedge" pattern is forming — a classic reversal pattern. The target level for this pattern is $157.89, which is 15% above current values. However, for this scenario to materialize, a confident return above the resistance of $149–153 is needed. In favor of the bulls is also the first bullish divergence on the RSI (14) since July 14: the indicator formed a higher low, while the price updated a local low.
Evercore ISI analysts initiated coverage of SPCX this week with an "outperform" rating and a target of $230, close to the average market forecast of $236. "There is no arguing that this is an exceptional company that is truly changing the future of humanity," the report emphasizes.
Key catalyst: 13th Starship launch
The fate of SpaceX shares now depends on the 13th test flight of Starship, scheduled for Thursday, July 16. For the first time, the rocket will launch 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, adding 60 terabits per second of bandwidth — 20 times more than a single Falcon 9 flight. A successful launch could lift SPCX out of its current range and confirm Musk's ambitious valuations. A failure, however, threatens a breakdown of the placement level at $135 and the loss of the last support.
Expert opinion: SPCX is at a bifurcation point. Technical signals indicate potential for a bounce to $158, but the fundamental risks of share unlocking and high volatility ahead of the Starship launch make the current situation extremely risky. Investors should prepare for sharp moves in either direction — the 13th flight will determine the trend for the coming weeks.